374 
FXUS63 KOAX 291723
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

These clouds are being very persistent, and I have to wonder if
the Saharan dust layer is not helping to enhance them. As a
result, temperatures have not risen this morning at all. thus as
previously discussed, cut back on afternoon highs by another 1-3
degrees with most locations held in the mid 80s today. 

UPDATE Issued at 1013 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Quite a bit of cloud cover out there this morning, and it will
take a while to begin scattering that out. That will likely limit
temps from reaching previous forecast highs. Knocked a couple of
degrees of current forecast, and may even need another 1 or 2
degrees. Will evaluate again by Noon. Knox county has cleared out,
and thus still expecting it to heat up there into lower 90s, with
heat index values near 100 there. With the slightly lower air
temps, heat index values remain below elsewhere today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

An upper-level low continues to move slowly across the northwestern 
CONUS with broad southwesterly flow across the nation's mid-section. 
A few embedded weak shortwaves continue to move through this 
southwesterly flow. Cannot completely rule out a few showers/ 
thunderstorms in our eastern counties early this morning with a 
veered low-level jet around 35-40kts in place. Some cloud 
enhancements have been noted overnight but these do continue to 
struggle to become organized likely due to a weak mid-level 
capping inversion. 

Modest southerly low-level flow will continue across the region 
today ahead of surface low pressure over the High Plains. Highs 
are forecast to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Combined 
with dewpoints in the 70s, some heat indices along the SD/NE 
border could reach into the 100-105 range. Will continue 
inherited heat advisory for Knox and Cedar counties for this 
afternoon. 

By Tuesday, a vigorous lead short-wave trough will elongate and 
become negatively tilted across the Dakotas and central Plains. 
At the surface, an associated weak cold front is forecast to push 
east across the Dakotas and Nebraska ahead of this feature while 
a surface low slides east across Kansas. Strong to severe 
thunderstorm development is likely Tuesday afternoon along the 
northern Plains surface front and could surge east/southeast into 
eastern Nebraska late Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday 
morning. Portions of northeast Nebraska have been added to a 
Slight Risk for the Day 2 severe weather outlook.

Much of the remainder of the forecast, including the holiday 
weekend looks dry with building heights across the region. Weak
high pressure will be over the area which should provide for a few
days of fairly light winds. Temperatures look near seasonal. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Clouds will be persistent through much of the period. MVFR at
KOMA/OFK, but should improve to just above with cloud bases
increasing to 3500-4500 feet within the next few hours. MVFR could
redevelop at KOFK/KOMA overnight, and even a few hours of IFR
expected. Otherwise, gusty southeast winds at 14 to 22 knots, with
gusts diminishing 03-06z. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012.

IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DeWald
DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald