374 FXUS63 KOAX 291723 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .UPDATE... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 These clouds are being very persistent, and I have to wonder if the Saharan dust layer is not helping to enhance them. As a result, temperatures have not risen this morning at all. thus as previously discussed, cut back on afternoon highs by another 1-3 degrees with most locations held in the mid 80s today. UPDATE Issued at 1013 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Quite a bit of cloud cover out there this morning, and it will take a while to begin scattering that out. That will likely limit temps from reaching previous forecast highs. Knocked a couple of degrees of current forecast, and may even need another 1 or 2 degrees. Will evaluate again by Noon. Knox county has cleared out, and thus still expecting it to heat up there into lower 90s, with heat index values near 100 there. With the slightly lower air temps, heat index values remain below elsewhere today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 An upper-level low continues to move slowly across the northwestern CONUS with broad southwesterly flow across the nation's mid-section. A few embedded weak shortwaves continue to move through this southwesterly flow. Cannot completely rule out a few showers/ thunderstorms in our eastern counties early this morning with a veered low-level jet around 35-40kts in place. Some cloud enhancements have been noted overnight but these do continue to struggle to become organized likely due to a weak mid-level capping inversion. Modest southerly low-level flow will continue across the region today ahead of surface low pressure over the High Plains. Highs are forecast to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s, some heat indices along the SD/NE border could reach into the 100-105 range. Will continue inherited heat advisory for Knox and Cedar counties for this afternoon. By Tuesday, a vigorous lead short-wave trough will elongate and become negatively tilted across the Dakotas and central Plains. At the surface, an associated weak cold front is forecast to push east across the Dakotas and Nebraska ahead of this feature while a surface low slides east across Kansas. Strong to severe thunderstorm development is likely Tuesday afternoon along the northern Plains surface front and could surge east/southeast into eastern Nebraska late Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday morning. Portions of northeast Nebraska have been added to a Slight Risk for the Day 2 severe weather outlook. Much of the remainder of the forecast, including the holiday weekend looks dry with building heights across the region. Weak high pressure will be over the area which should provide for a few days of fairly light winds. Temperatures look near seasonal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Clouds will be persistent through much of the period. MVFR at KOMA/OFK, but should improve to just above with cloud bases increasing to 3500-4500 feet within the next few hours. MVFR could redevelop at KOFK/KOMA overnight, and even a few hours of IFR expected. Otherwise, gusty southeast winds at 14 to 22 knots, with gusts diminishing 03-06z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...DeWald DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...DeWald