353 
FXUS62 KMLB 191930
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Threat for Locally Heavy Rainfall Again This Afternoon/Evening...
...Marginal Threat for Strong/Severe Storms...
...Flood Watch Through 8 PM This Evening for the Treasure Coast...

Current-Tonight...A marginal threat for strong/severe storms 
continues into early this evening. Enough CAPE, instability, and 
cool temperatures aloft (-9.7C at 500mb from 15Z XMR sounding) may 
produce marginally severe hail/locally damaging winds in a few 
storms. Embedded impulses in the SWRLY flow aloft will traverse the 
south-central peninsula. Coverage of showers/storms will be 
scattered to numerous. Storm motion will be toward the east or 
northeast at around 10 mph. Training cells may allow for repeated 
rounds of precipitation for some areas with localized/nuisance 
flooding, especially in prone areas or locales that have seen 
plentiful rainfall of recent. The potential will exist for storms to 
produce 1 to 3 inches of rain in a 60 to 90 minute time-period with 
locally higher amounts possible. Frequent lightning, wind gusts to 
45 to 55 mph, and hail will be additional threats. The east coast 
sea breeze will continue to push inland providing an additional 
focus for showers/storms. Activity will slowly diminish past sunset 
and into late evening. Tonight's lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Previous Extended Discussion...

Weekend...UL trough/wave extending from the eastern Seaboard and 
across the FL peninsula will slowly drift over the Atlc Basin. 
Modest drying will accompany sfc ridging which will become firmly 
established across the peninsula by Sunday. Scattered showers and 
afternoon storms are expected both days with a little lower coverage 
by Sunday. Storms should not be particularly strong and higher 
coverage amounts should generally be across the southern half of the 
area. Temperature ranges seasonal with highs in the U80s to L90s and 
lows in the lower to M70s. 

Next Week...The upcoming week will feature a dominant Bermuda ridge 
elongated across central FL to the Gulf most of the week. Weak 
impulses riding across the northern periphery combined with suitable 
moisture will lead to slow moving diurnally timed storms. The ridge 
is shown orienting more toward the southern peninsula late in the 
week, keeping sct to numerous rain percentages in the daily forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period outside 
of convection. Ongoing showers and storms along the coast and from 
Osceola county southward. Included a TEMPO group with MVFR CIGS/VIS 
for all sites with 3SM TSRA BKN025CB through 21Z. Winds are expected 
to become VRB starting between 01Z-03Z across all TAF sites. 
Tomorrow, winds will be VRB for most of the day becoming E/ESE at 
05KT around 15Z. Included VCSH for KMCO starting at 19Z and KSUA 
starting at 14Z tomorrow for right now, will re-evaluate for the 00Z 
TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...Afternoon-Tonight...Scattered/numerous, offshore-moving, 
showers/storms into this evening. Marine interests across inland 
lakes as well as intracoastal/near shore Atlc waters will need to 
keep an eye to the sky west/southwestward for approaching storms. 
Torrential downpours, cloud to water lightning, hail and scattered 
wind gusts in excess of 35 kts will be storm hazards. Winds/seas 
locally higher invof storms. Seas 2-3 ft very near shore and 3-4 ft 
offshore. S/SE winds early in the period increasing to 10-15 kts 
will become disrupted (variable direction) as storms push through. 
SSW/SW winds forecast this evening/overnight with speeds generally 
falling below 10 kts. 

Previous Extended Discussion...

Weekend...Favorable water conditions with seas 2-3 ft. Winds and 
seas temporarily higher near showers and storms.

Next week...With the Atlc ridge becoming established in proximity 
expect a continuation of favorable open water conditions with seas 
around 2 to 3 ft and winds averaging 10kt or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  90  72  92 /  30  30  10  30 
MCO  72  95  74  95 /  30  50  10  40 
MLB  72  90  73  91 /  40  50  20  30 
VRB  71  91  73  91 /  40  60  20  30 
LEE  74  95  73  95 /  30  40  10  30 
SFB  71  95  74  95 /  30  40  10  40 
ORL  72  94  76  95 /  30  50  10  40 
FPR  71  90  72  91 /  40  60  20  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Indian River-Martin-
     St. Lucie.

AM...None.
&&

$$

ALL FORECAST GRIDS...Sedlock 
RADAR....Volkmer 
AVIATION...Watson