353 FXUS62 KMLB 191930 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 330 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 .DISCUSSION... ...Threat for Locally Heavy Rainfall Again This Afternoon/Evening... ...Marginal Threat for Strong/Severe Storms... ...Flood Watch Through 8 PM This Evening for the Treasure Coast... Current-Tonight...A marginal threat for strong/severe storms continues into early this evening. Enough CAPE, instability, and cool temperatures aloft (-9.7C at 500mb from 15Z XMR sounding) may produce marginally severe hail/locally damaging winds in a few storms. Embedded impulses in the SWRLY flow aloft will traverse the south-central peninsula. Coverage of showers/storms will be scattered to numerous. Storm motion will be toward the east or northeast at around 10 mph. Training cells may allow for repeated rounds of precipitation for some areas with localized/nuisance flooding, especially in prone areas or locales that have seen plentiful rainfall of recent. The potential will exist for storms to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain in a 60 to 90 minute time-period with locally higher amounts possible. Frequent lightning, wind gusts to 45 to 55 mph, and hail will be additional threats. The east coast sea breeze will continue to push inland providing an additional focus for showers/storms. Activity will slowly diminish past sunset and into late evening. Tonight's lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Previous Extended Discussion... Weekend...UL trough/wave extending from the eastern Seaboard and across the FL peninsula will slowly drift over the Atlc Basin. Modest drying will accompany sfc ridging which will become firmly established across the peninsula by Sunday. Scattered showers and afternoon storms are expected both days with a little lower coverage by Sunday. Storms should not be particularly strong and higher coverage amounts should generally be across the southern half of the area. Temperature ranges seasonal with highs in the U80s to L90s and lows in the lower to M70s. Next Week...The upcoming week will feature a dominant Bermuda ridge elongated across central FL to the Gulf most of the week. Weak impulses riding across the northern periphery combined with suitable moisture will lead to slow moving diurnally timed storms. The ridge is shown orienting more toward the southern peninsula late in the week, keeping sct to numerous rain percentages in the daily forecast. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period outside of convection. Ongoing showers and storms along the coast and from Osceola county southward. Included a TEMPO group with MVFR CIGS/VIS for all sites with 3SM TSRA BKN025CB through 21Z. Winds are expected to become VRB starting between 01Z-03Z across all TAF sites. Tomorrow, winds will be VRB for most of the day becoming E/ESE at 05KT around 15Z. Included VCSH for KMCO starting at 19Z and KSUA starting at 14Z tomorrow for right now, will re-evaluate for the 00Z TAF package. && .MARINE...Afternoon-Tonight...Scattered/numerous, offshore-moving, showers/storms into this evening. Marine interests across inland lakes as well as intracoastal/near shore Atlc waters will need to keep an eye to the sky west/southwestward for approaching storms. Torrential downpours, cloud to water lightning, hail and scattered wind gusts in excess of 35 kts will be storm hazards. Winds/seas locally higher invof storms. Seas 2-3 ft very near shore and 3-4 ft offshore. S/SE winds early in the period increasing to 10-15 kts will become disrupted (variable direction) as storms push through. SSW/SW winds forecast this evening/overnight with speeds generally falling below 10 kts. Previous Extended Discussion... Weekend...Favorable water conditions with seas 2-3 ft. Winds and seas temporarily higher near showers and storms. Next week...With the Atlc ridge becoming established in proximity expect a continuation of favorable open water conditions with seas around 2 to 3 ft and winds averaging 10kt or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 90 72 92 / 30 30 10 30 MCO 72 95 74 95 / 30 50 10 40 MLB 72 90 73 91 / 40 50 20 30 VRB 71 91 73 91 / 40 60 20 30 LEE 74 95 73 95 / 30 40 10 30 SFB 71 95 74 95 / 30 40 10 40 ORL 72 94 76 95 / 30 50 10 40 FPR 71 90 72 91 / 40 60 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Indian River-Martin- St. Lucie. AM...None. && $$ ALL FORECAST GRIDS...Sedlock RADAR....Volkmer AVIATION...Watson