047 
FXUS62 KJAX 051757
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
157 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Areas of rain and some embedded moderate showers are pushing east
northeast over the region, with the areas of rain mainly confined
over northeast FL. Anticipate a chance of some MVFR vsby/cigs
through the early evening, with chances diminishing after about 8
PM. T-storm chances are low and have continued to leave out of 
the TAF forecast at this time. Increasing chances of showers again
on Saturday. Winds southwest to west this afternoon about 5-10 
kt...becoming light and variable overnight. Winds southerly at 
5-10 kt Saturday, except becoming southeast at GNV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [939 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Today through Saturday]...A deep moist south to
southwest flow will remain across the area as high pressure
remains to our southeast and TD Cristobal over the Yucatan 
peninsula drifts north into the central Gulf on Saturday. Energy
aloft lifting north across the Fl peninsula will bring widespread
showers into ne Fl...with embedded isolated thunderstorms during 
the afternoon hours due to limited daytime heating. PWATs around 
2 inches will result in areas of locally heavy rainfall each day.
Widespread cloudiness will keep daytime temperatures in the 
low/mid 80s across ne Fl...with upper 80s over se Ga where precip
will be less widespread.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...

Deep/Tropical Moisture Plume on the east side of TC Cristobal over
the Ern Gomex will track northward into NE FL/SE GA with Preciptable
Water Amounts close to 2.5 inches and this combined with good
divergence aloft will help to promote heavy rainfall in heavy
shower activity with embedded storms at times. Abundant cloud
cover will hold Max Temps down into the lower to middle 80s. Heavy
Rainfall Amounts of 2-4 inches will be most likely over inland NE
FL along the I-75 corridor, with 1-3 inch values closer to the
Atlc Coastal Counties and the I-95 corridor, and 1-2 inch totals
across SE GA. Still too early for any Flood Watches which will be
determined by any locally heavy rainfall that occurs over the next
couple of days.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]...

Mon/Tue...Tropical Plume of moisture remains over the region with
Precipitable Water Amounts remaining above 2 inches and more
diurnal heating will allow for Max Temps to reach into the upper
80s to near 90 degrees and will ignite daily afternoon/evening
storms with locally heavy rainfall remaining the main threat due
to slow storm motion.

Wed/Thu...Sfc High Pressure builds north of the region and deeper
easterly flow will push storms well inland, and combined with
drier airmass aloft will bring rainfall chances back closer to
climo values around 40-60%, with scattered storms expected mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. The stronger easterly flow
off the Atlc will hold Max Temps down into the middle 80s along
the coast and upper 80s over inland areas.


.MARINE...The coastal waters will remain between high pressure to
the east and a tropical cyclone in the Gulf the next few days. A 
southerly flow will prevail over the area into early next week. 
Wind speeds will be mostly 10-15 knots with seas up to 5 feet 
offshore.

Rip Currents: Low risk for today. Moderate risk expected on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  87  70  85  71 /  10  10  40  50  30 
SSI  74  84  73  83  74 /  10  20  50  60  30 
JAX  72  84  70  84  72 /  10  60  70  80  40 
SGJ  72  82  72  83  73 /  20  60  70  80  40 
GNV  70  81  70  84  71 /  20  80  80  80  40 
OCF  70  81  71  85  72 /  40  90  80  90  50 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&