047 FXUS62 KJAX 051757 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 157 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Saturday] Areas of rain and some embedded moderate showers are pushing east northeast over the region, with the areas of rain mainly confined over northeast FL. Anticipate a chance of some MVFR vsby/cigs through the early evening, with chances diminishing after about 8 PM. T-storm chances are low and have continued to leave out of the TAF forecast at this time. Increasing chances of showers again on Saturday. Winds southwest to west this afternoon about 5-10 kt...becoming light and variable overnight. Winds southerly at 5-10 kt Saturday, except becoming southeast at GNV. && .PREV DISCUSSION [939 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Today through Saturday]...A deep moist south to southwest flow will remain across the area as high pressure remains to our southeast and TD Cristobal over the Yucatan peninsula drifts north into the central Gulf on Saturday. Energy aloft lifting north across the Fl peninsula will bring widespread showers into ne Fl...with embedded isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours due to limited daytime heating. PWATs around 2 inches will result in areas of locally heavy rainfall each day. Widespread cloudiness will keep daytime temperatures in the low/mid 80s across ne Fl...with upper 80s over se Ga where precip will be less widespread. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]... Deep/Tropical Moisture Plume on the east side of TC Cristobal over the Ern Gomex will track northward into NE FL/SE GA with Preciptable Water Amounts close to 2.5 inches and this combined with good divergence aloft will help to promote heavy rainfall in heavy shower activity with embedded storms at times. Abundant cloud cover will hold Max Temps down into the lower to middle 80s. Heavy Rainfall Amounts of 2-4 inches will be most likely over inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor, with 1-3 inch values closer to the Atlc Coastal Counties and the I-95 corridor, and 1-2 inch totals across SE GA. Still too early for any Flood Watches which will be determined by any locally heavy rainfall that occurs over the next couple of days. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]... Mon/Tue...Tropical Plume of moisture remains over the region with Precipitable Water Amounts remaining above 2 inches and more diurnal heating will allow for Max Temps to reach into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees and will ignite daily afternoon/evening storms with locally heavy rainfall remaining the main threat due to slow storm motion. Wed/Thu...Sfc High Pressure builds north of the region and deeper easterly flow will push storms well inland, and combined with drier airmass aloft will bring rainfall chances back closer to climo values around 40-60%, with scattered storms expected mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The stronger easterly flow off the Atlc will hold Max Temps down into the middle 80s along the coast and upper 80s over inland areas. .MARINE...The coastal waters will remain between high pressure to the east and a tropical cyclone in the Gulf the next few days. A southerly flow will prevail over the area into early next week. Wind speeds will be mostly 10-15 knots with seas up to 5 feet offshore. Rip Currents: Low risk for today. Moderate risk expected on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 87 70 85 71 / 10 10 40 50 30 SSI 74 84 73 83 74 / 10 20 50 60 30 JAX 72 84 70 84 72 / 10 60 70 80 40 SGJ 72 82 72 83 73 / 20 60 70 80 40 GNV 70 81 70 84 71 / 20 80 80 80 40 OCF 70 81 71 85 72 / 40 90 80 90 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&