077 
FXUS62 KJAX 280104
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
904 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020

.UPDATE...

High pressure building directly over the region tonight along with
clear skies, near calm winds and dry airmass in place will set the
stage for good radiational cooling conds. Have tweaked down Min
Temps inland slightly to allow for widespread lows in the upper
40s, along with some middle 40s possible in normally colder
locations. The light onshore flow will keep the coastal locations
in the 50s for overnight lows. On Tuesday, High pressure will
slide offshore and surface flow will become Southeast at 10-15 mph
with gusts to 20-25 mph at the beaches during the afternoon hours.
This milder SE flow will push temps back closer to seasonable late
April values with Highs in the lower/middle 80s inland and mid/upper
70s at the coastal areas. A few high clouds are expected but
overall Mostly Sunny skies on tap through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [719 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Tuesday]...Surface high pressure to
the west will settle over the area tonight resulting in fair and
slightly cooler conditions with calm winds. Temperatures will 
fall into the upper 40s inland and 50s over coastal counties. 
Mostly sunny and mild conditions will continue on Tuesday with 
temperatures a few degrees warmer. Highs will reach the upper 70s 
coast to the lower 80s inland.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday night through Thursday night]...South winds
will increase and become breezy on Wednesday as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching cold front. Models
in good agreement in pushing cold front and digging upper trough
across the area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms expected to reach interior se Ga around
midnight...exiting ne Fl by mid-morning on Thursday morning.
Instability and vertical shear look marginal for a few strong to 
severe storms to occur. The main threat appears to be the
possibility of strong winds. Clearing skies with drier and breezy
conditions expected by late morning across se Ga and ne Fl.
Temperatures will be at or above average levels.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]...Deep layer high pressure 
ridge will build into the area from the west through the period. 
Dry conditions will prevail with warming temperatures as subsidence
increases over the southeast. Seasonal temperatures on Friday will
become above average this weekend with highs in the upper 80s and 
lower 90s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]

VFR through the period. East-Southeast winds increase to 8-12
knots in the 15-16Z time frame Monday afternoon.


.MARINE...High pressure will settle over the area tonight with
northwest winds veering to the southeast Tuesday morning. Winds
will increase to SCEC levels offshore Wednesday through Thursday 
with the approach of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will 
push across the waters late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. 
Winds will shift to the northwest with the frontal passage
Thursday morning. Winds and seas will decrease Thursday night
through the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...Critically low RH values expected again on Tuesday
with min RH values 25-35 percent inland. Winds will be too light
for a red flag event. Dewpoints will increase on Wednesday with 
RHs remaining above 35 percent. Southerly winds also increase 
Wednesday afternoon which will produce high dispersions.


.HYDROLOGY...Moderate flooding is forecast to begin at Baxley and
Everett City on the Altamaha River tonight. Minor flooding will 
continue on the Satilla River through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  48  82  57  84  58 /   0   0   0  10  90 
SSI  59  75  65  79  62 /   0   0   0   0  70 
JAX  52  81  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  70 
SGJ  57  78  63  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  50 
GNV  49  84  58  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  70 
OCF  50  85  58  86  64 /   0   0   0   0  60 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&