077 FXUS62 KJAX 280104 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 904 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 .UPDATE... High pressure building directly over the region tonight along with clear skies, near calm winds and dry airmass in place will set the stage for good radiational cooling conds. Have tweaked down Min Temps inland slightly to allow for widespread lows in the upper 40s, along with some middle 40s possible in normally colder locations. The light onshore flow will keep the coastal locations in the 50s for overnight lows. On Tuesday, High pressure will slide offshore and surface flow will become Southeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at the beaches during the afternoon hours. This milder SE flow will push temps back closer to seasonable late April values with Highs in the lower/middle 80s inland and mid/upper 70s at the coastal areas. A few high clouds are expected but overall Mostly Sunny skies on tap through the day. && .PREV DISCUSSION [719 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Tonight through Tuesday]...Surface high pressure to the west will settle over the area tonight resulting in fair and slightly cooler conditions with calm winds. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s inland and 50s over coastal counties. Mostly sunny and mild conditions will continue on Tuesday with temperatures a few degrees warmer. Highs will reach the upper 70s coast to the lower 80s inland. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday night through Thursday night]...South winds will increase and become breezy on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching cold front. Models in good agreement in pushing cold front and digging upper trough across the area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms expected to reach interior se Ga around midnight...exiting ne Fl by mid-morning on Thursday morning. Instability and vertical shear look marginal for a few strong to severe storms to occur. The main threat appears to be the possibility of strong winds. Clearing skies with drier and breezy conditions expected by late morning across se Ga and ne Fl. Temperatures will be at or above average levels. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]...Deep layer high pressure ridge will build into the area from the west through the period. Dry conditions will prevail with warming temperatures as subsidence increases over the southeast. Seasonal temperatures on Friday will become above average this weekend with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR through the period. East-Southeast winds increase to 8-12 knots in the 15-16Z time frame Monday afternoon. .MARINE...High pressure will settle over the area tonight with northwest winds veering to the southeast Tuesday morning. Winds will increase to SCEC levels offshore Wednesday through Thursday with the approach of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will push across the waters late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Winds will shift to the northwest with the frontal passage Thursday morning. Winds and seas will decrease Thursday night through the weekend. .FIRE WEATHER...Critically low RH values expected again on Tuesday with min RH values 25-35 percent inland. Winds will be too light for a red flag event. Dewpoints will increase on Wednesday with RHs remaining above 35 percent. Southerly winds also increase Wednesday afternoon which will produce high dispersions. .HYDROLOGY...Moderate flooding is forecast to begin at Baxley and Everett City on the Altamaha River tonight. Minor flooding will continue on the Satilla River through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 48 82 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 10 90 SSI 59 75 65 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 70 JAX 52 81 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 70 SGJ 57 78 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 50 GNV 49 84 58 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 70 OCF 50 85 58 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&