658 
FXUS63 KLMK 180718
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
318 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

This morning, a SW-NE oriented band of light to moderate 
precipitation continues to move over south- and east-central KY and 
is expected to exit off to our east over the next hour. Behind the 
precip, current satellite imagery shows an expansive stratus layer 
over the area, with the clearing line just to our north across 
southern IL and into south-central IN. Seeing a decent temperature 
gradient set up as northwesterly winds advect in cooler air, with 
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s over southern IN to the 
lower 50s over southeastern KY. By sunrise however, most areas will 
have fallen into the 30s. 

Expect fairly pleasant weather for the rest of the day as surface 
high pressure builds eastward across the region. Skies will clear 
from northwest to southeast through mid-morning, with southern IN 
expected to begin clearing out a couple hours before sunrise. Frost 
Advisory has been trimmed back to only include portions of south-
central IN where clear skies and diminishing winds are more likely. 
High temperatures this afternoon will reach into the mid to upper 
50s under sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the 
mid 30s to around 40 as mid and high level clouds spread across the 
region overnight ahead of our next system.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

Southern-stream shortwave will generate strong storms across the 
Deep South on Sunday, but sling just enough moisture northward to 
interact with a weakening cold front across Kentucky. Just enough 
moisture and lift to support mainly light precip, with better 
chances across south-central Kentucky, where there could also be 
some embedded thunder. Amounts will be roughly a quarter inch or 
less, with emphasis on the "less" once you get north of the 
Cumberland Parkway. 

Monday and Tuesday will feature NW flow aloft and a sfc high 
building south out of the Upper Midwest. GFS tries to spit out 
diurnally driven QPF, which limits our confidence somewhat, but we 
will still roll with a dry forecast in this time frame given the 
lack of deep moisture. Temps finally recover above climo, where they 
will remain for much of next week. 

The latter half of the week will see more of a wavy but still 
progressive pattern. A closed low over the OK/TX Panhandle on 
Wednesday will open up as it pushes ENE across the Great Lakes and 
Ohio Valley. Likely/categorical POPs Wednesday night and Thursday, 
but again the stronger storms should stay well to our south again. 
Shortwave ridging will follow before the next system brings rain 
chances going into the weekend, but timing issues make Friday a low-
confidence forecast.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

Main band of precipitation continues to make its way across KY and 
is expected to push out of BWG and LEX over the next couple of 
hours, with MVFR visibilities lingering in the light rain and mist. 
Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs will persist over much of the region 
through sunrise. The clearing line is currently oriented SW to NE 
across southern IL and central IN and is expected to reach HNB 
around 9-10Z, with the remaining TAF sites clearing out by 13-15Z. 
There may be a brief window for fog development at HNB depending on 
how quickly HNB clears out, but confidence was not high enough to 
include mention in TAFs.  

Sustained wind speeds have stayed up around 10 kts out of the 
northwest, with occasional gusts of up to 20 kts still being 
observed. Winds are expected to gradually diminish towards dawn, 
becoming light and variable, and then eventually shifting to the 
south/southwest by this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ076-
     077-083-084-089.

KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...JML
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...JML