658 FXUS63 KLMK 180718 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 This morning, a SW-NE oriented band of light to moderate precipitation continues to move over south- and east-central KY and is expected to exit off to our east over the next hour. Behind the precip, current satellite imagery shows an expansive stratus layer over the area, with the clearing line just to our north across southern IL and into south-central IN. Seeing a decent temperature gradient set up as northwesterly winds advect in cooler air, with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s over southern IN to the lower 50s over southeastern KY. By sunrise however, most areas will have fallen into the 30s. Expect fairly pleasant weather for the rest of the day as surface high pressure builds eastward across the region. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast through mid-morning, with southern IN expected to begin clearing out a couple hours before sunrise. Frost Advisory has been trimmed back to only include portions of south- central IN where clear skies and diminishing winds are more likely. High temperatures this afternoon will reach into the mid to upper 50s under sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the mid 30s to around 40 as mid and high level clouds spread across the region overnight ahead of our next system. && .Long Term...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Southern-stream shortwave will generate strong storms across the Deep South on Sunday, but sling just enough moisture northward to interact with a weakening cold front across Kentucky. Just enough moisture and lift to support mainly light precip, with better chances across south-central Kentucky, where there could also be some embedded thunder. Amounts will be roughly a quarter inch or less, with emphasis on the "less" once you get north of the Cumberland Parkway. Monday and Tuesday will feature NW flow aloft and a sfc high building south out of the Upper Midwest. GFS tries to spit out diurnally driven QPF, which limits our confidence somewhat, but we will still roll with a dry forecast in this time frame given the lack of deep moisture. Temps finally recover above climo, where they will remain for much of next week. The latter half of the week will see more of a wavy but still progressive pattern. A closed low over the OK/TX Panhandle on Wednesday will open up as it pushes ENE across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Likely/categorical POPs Wednesday night and Thursday, but again the stronger storms should stay well to our south again. Shortwave ridging will follow before the next system brings rain chances going into the weekend, but timing issues make Friday a low- confidence forecast. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020 Main band of precipitation continues to make its way across KY and is expected to push out of BWG and LEX over the next couple of hours, with MVFR visibilities lingering in the light rain and mist. Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs will persist over much of the region through sunrise. The clearing line is currently oriented SW to NE across southern IL and central IN and is expected to reach HNB around 9-10Z, with the remaining TAF sites clearing out by 13-15Z. There may be a brief window for fog development at HNB depending on how quickly HNB clears out, but confidence was not high enough to include mention in TAFs. Sustained wind speeds have stayed up around 10 kts out of the northwest, with occasional gusts of up to 20 kts still being observed. Winds are expected to gradually diminish towards dawn, becoming light and variable, and then eventually shifting to the south/southwest by this evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ076- 077-083-084-089. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...JML Long Term...RAS Aviation...JML