867 
FXUS62 KJAX 151743
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
143 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

.Near Term.../through Thursday/...

Frontal boundary will move south across NE FL this afternoon, as 
upper wave moves NE along it. The combination of the
surface boundary and the upper energy will continue to provide for
showers and storms as it moves south. North of the surface boundary,
upper energy will keep the chance of showers with embedded 
thunderstorms in the forecast. Potential for strong to severe storms
will be along and south of the surface boundary track, where surface
instability will be greatest. 

Frontal boundary will slip just south of the region Thursday 
morning, before stalling. Boundary will still be close enough to 
produce showers through the day over southern counties, with a few
embedded thunderstorms possible. High pressure will build from the 
north, providing clearing skies from north to south across SE GA, 
and into northern FL. A surge of winds is expected to move south 
down the coastal waters Thursday, which will provide gusty winds at 
the coast. The combination of the onshore flow over the relatively 
cooler coastal waters, and cloud cover will keep temperatures across
coastal SE GA, and much of NE FL well below normal through the day
Thursday.      

&&

.Short Term.../Thursday night through Sunday/...

High pressure will build to the north northeast Thursday night, 
helping push the boundary a little further to the south, and 
providing for a dry night. The high will build more toward the east 
on Friday, allowing moisture to return from the south, increasing
precipitation chances. The high will build more toward the southeast
Friday night, as a weak low tracks east across the gulf. This low 
will get caught in the base of a cold front which will move 
southeast across the area on Saturday providing chances for 
showers and storms. Weak high pressure will build Saturday night. 
A warm front extending east from a low over the central gulf coast
region will be over the region Sunday, with best chance for 
convection over SE GA. 

Temperatures this period be near normal Friday, then trend to above
seasonal averages over the weekend.   

&&

.Long Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/...

A cold front will move southeast across forecast area Sunday night
through Monday. A round of strong storms will be expected with this
systems passage. High pressure will build to the northwest Monday 
night, helping to push this front further to the southeast. This 
high will build to the north northeast Tuesday, then to the east
Wednesday. Dry weather will be expected for Tuesday into Tuesday 
night. A low pressure system will approach from the west Wednesday, 
which could produce a few showers or storms inland SE GA in the
afternoon.   

&&

.Marine...

Frontal boundary will slowly move southeast across the region Today,
and to the southeast Thursday morning. High pressure will build from
the north Thursday afternoon. A surge of winds will work its way 
south across area waters overnight through Thursday, with small 
craft advisory conditions expected. Waves may remain elevated into
Thursday night, which may require the advisory to be extended for 
outer waters. 

The high will build to the northeast Thursday night, then to the 
east Friday. The high will move to the southeast Friday night, as a 
cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move 
southeast across the area Saturday. A warm front will stretch east 
across the area Sunday, with another cold front moving through 
Monday into Monday night. High pressure will build to the north 
Tuesday.  

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Moderate to High Thursday. 

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  50  71  50  79  64 /  20   0   0  10  30 
SSI  58  67  59  74  66 /  20  10   0  20  30 
JAX  57  68  59  78  66 /  30  10   0  20  20 
SGJ  61  67  61  77  66 /  70  40  10  30  30 
GNV  58  68  57  79  65 /  60  50   0  30  20 
OCF  61  66  59  80  66 /  80  60  10  30  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal 
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to 
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina 
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&