867 FXUS62 KJAX 151743 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 143 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020 .Near Term.../through Thursday/... Frontal boundary will move south across NE FL this afternoon, as upper wave moves NE along it. The combination of the surface boundary and the upper energy will continue to provide for showers and storms as it moves south. North of the surface boundary, upper energy will keep the chance of showers with embedded thunderstorms in the forecast. Potential for strong to severe storms will be along and south of the surface boundary track, where surface instability will be greatest. Frontal boundary will slip just south of the region Thursday morning, before stalling. Boundary will still be close enough to produce showers through the day over southern counties, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. High pressure will build from the north, providing clearing skies from north to south across SE GA, and into northern FL. A surge of winds is expected to move south down the coastal waters Thursday, which will provide gusty winds at the coast. The combination of the onshore flow over the relatively cooler coastal waters, and cloud cover will keep temperatures across coastal SE GA, and much of NE FL well below normal through the day Thursday. && .Short Term.../Thursday night through Sunday/... High pressure will build to the north northeast Thursday night, helping push the boundary a little further to the south, and providing for a dry night. The high will build more toward the east on Friday, allowing moisture to return from the south, increasing precipitation chances. The high will build more toward the southeast Friday night, as a weak low tracks east across the gulf. This low will get caught in the base of a cold front which will move southeast across the area on Saturday providing chances for showers and storms. Weak high pressure will build Saturday night. A warm front extending east from a low over the central gulf coast region will be over the region Sunday, with best chance for convection over SE GA. Temperatures this period be near normal Friday, then trend to above seasonal averages over the weekend. && .Long Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/... A cold front will move southeast across forecast area Sunday night through Monday. A round of strong storms will be expected with this systems passage. High pressure will build to the northwest Monday night, helping to push this front further to the southeast. This high will build to the north northeast Tuesday, then to the east Wednesday. Dry weather will be expected for Tuesday into Tuesday night. A low pressure system will approach from the west Wednesday, which could produce a few showers or storms inland SE GA in the afternoon. && .Marine... Frontal boundary will slowly move southeast across the region Today, and to the southeast Thursday morning. High pressure will build from the north Thursday afternoon. A surge of winds will work its way south across area waters overnight through Thursday, with small craft advisory conditions expected. Waves may remain elevated into Thursday night, which may require the advisory to be extended for outer waters. The high will build to the northeast Thursday night, then to the east Friday. The high will move to the southeast Friday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move southeast across the area Saturday. A warm front will stretch east across the area Sunday, with another cold front moving through Monday into Monday night. High pressure will build to the north Tuesday. Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Moderate to High Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 50 71 50 79 64 / 20 0 0 10 30 SSI 58 67 59 74 66 / 20 10 0 20 30 JAX 57 68 59 78 66 / 30 10 0 20 20 SGJ 61 67 61 77 66 / 70 40 10 30 30 GNV 58 68 57 79 65 / 60 50 0 30 20 OCF 61 66 59 80 66 / 80 60 10 30 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&