535 
FXUS62 KMLB 191836
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
235 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Continued Unseasonably Warm & Mostly Dry into Early Next Week...

Rest of Today-Friday...Mid level high pressure persists extending 
across Florida from the Gulf of Mexico, as surface high pressure 
reaches westward from the western Atlantic Basin. Thus, warm and dry 
conditions will continue through the end of the week. Southeast flow 
from the Atlantic high pressure will keep temperatures above 
average. Highs on Friday look to be a few degrees higher than today. 
This afternoon's highs will in the mid to upper 80s inland and low 
80s along the coast, while temperatures warm to the upper 80s, 
approaching 90, inland and mid 80s at the coast. Although 
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above average, the only climate 
site that looks to make a run for a new record is Leesburg, where 
the forecast high matches the record high at 89. Southeast winds 
will become light overnight, before returning at around 5-10 mph 
Friday afternoon. Winds may approach 15 mph along the coast south of 
the Cape as the seabreeze develops.

Fri Night-Mon...Strong ridge aloft across the GOMEX and FL peninsula 
will flatten this weaken into early next week with flow aloft zonal. 
At the surface, ridging across the area will weaken and retreat 
south/east with the approach of a weak front that will become quasi-
stationary north of the CWA, but near our northern zones 
(Volusia/Lake). We do maintain a small PoP on Sun across the I-4 
corridor, but mainly dry elsewhere during this period. Temps will 
remain well above normal with maxes L-M80s near the coast and U80s 
inland. Mins in the 60s.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.

Tue-Thu...The base of the large eastern CONUS trough will slide 
offshore the SE CONUS/FL Tue, followed closely behind by a second 
fast moving short wave late Wed-Wed night. Model guidance is not 
impressed with precip chances for either of these disturbances aloft.

At the surface, the stalled front over NOFL will lift back north as 
warm front late Tue-early Wed, with SW flow increasing thereafter.
This would portend warm temps continuing through late week, with 
some locations possibly hitting 90F by Thu. Mins remaining in the 
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Brief 
reductions to MVFR ceilings possible near daybreak.

&&

.MARINE...Rest of Today-Thursday...Warm and dry conditions continue, 
as high pressure persists over the area. SE winds 10-15 kts this 
evening will continue through the overnight, except in nearshore 
areas north of the Cape, where winds will become SSE at 5-10 kts. 
Winds on Friday will again be SE at 10-15 kts. Seas 3-4 ft.

Fri Night-Tue...A light-moderate southeast breeze continuing into 
Fri evening will veer S-SW this weekend as the Atlantic ridge axis 
weakens and retreats seaward south of the slowly approaching cool 
front. Seas 3-4 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  65  85  66 /   0   0   0   0 
MCO  87  65  88  65 /   0   0   0   0 
MLB  84  67  83  65 /   0   0   0   0 
VRB  83  66  83  64 /  10   0   0   0 
LEE  87  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0 
SFB  87  65  88  66 /   0   0   0   0 
ORL  87  66  88  67 /   0   0   0   0 
FPR  83  65  83  63 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Leahy
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER...Sedlock
PUBLIC SERVICE...Watson
DSS...Kelly