575 
FXUS63 KBIS 091737
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

Latest satellite imagery shows low clouds have eroded over the
James River Valley, and should see improvements south central in
the next couple of hours. Perhaps some sunshine, but mid and high
clouds over southwest ND are moving northeast, and this will
likely keep mostly cloudy conditions going. Precipitation over
northeastern Montana has not quite reach Sidney but still
 light snow/rain to develop over northwest ND this afternoon. A 
couple CAMS's indicating weak development over southwest ND this 
afternoon as well. We have some PoPs in the southwest later this 
afternoon, but these may need some adjustment in the next couple 
of hours. Rest of the forecast is on track.

UPDATE Issued at 857 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

Latest fog/stratus imagery loop and surface observations show
cloudy conditions across central North Dakota, and also cloudy 
west with mid and high clouds. Have utilized the HRRR/RAP/GFSLamp 
to update sky grids which signal to keep the stratus into central 
ND until 18z. Regional radar shows reflectivities align well with 
mid level/700mb frontogenesis over eastern Montana. Frontogenesis 
is forecast to weaken after it crosses our western border this 
afternoon. Current PoPs and a snow/rain weather type looks good 
for now. 

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

The stratus deck over central ND is rather persistent and has not
diminished all that much over the past few hours. High-res model
guidance has been struggling a bit with this trend, so updated sky
cover in line with current nighttime satellite imagery. Also added
in flurries over the Minot area for the next 2 hours, with the AFB
reporting light snow.

In the meantime, higher clouds have begun streaming into the 
state ahead of the approaching shortwave. A band of light snow is 
oriented southwest- northeast in central Montana, slowly moving 
northeast towards the western North Dakota border. Updated 
precipitation chances and QPF with latest model guidance, but not 
much changed in terms of timing and snow amounts. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

The short term forecast is highlighted by a chance for rain and snow 
this afternoon and evening, mainly west and north.

Quiet conditions this morning as surface high pressure sits north of 
the International Border, while a low-level stratus deck 
continues to sit over central North Dakota. Temperatures in the 
far north central have dropped to the single digits where the 
stratus deck has eroded away, while south central locations still 
under the cloud shield are in the mid 20s. 

Southwest flow aloft will become more zonal this morning ahead of an 
approaching shortwave trough, with a chance of light snow across 
mainly the western and northern parts of the forecast area. Not much 
change from previous forecasts in that little to no accumulation is 
expected in most areas, with the greatest chance for more than just 
a dusting in the northwest. Latest iteration of the RAP does show 
some low-level frontogenesis in the northwest along with lapse rates 
between 6.5 - 7.0 C/km and strong warm air advection, which could 
help produce slightly higher snow amounts. However, most guidance
has consistently been showing only a few hundreths of QPF, so at
this point can't see anywhere receiving more than a half inch to 
an inch of snow.

Temperatures will rebound nicely in the southwest compared to 
yesterday, with today's highs in the mid 40s. Northwest and central, 
expect highs in the 30s, while the Turtle Mountains through the 
James Valley will likely only be in the mid 20s. Lows tonight will 
be slightly warmer in the east central, staying in the teens, while 
the southwest will see lows in the mid 20s. There is a slight chance
of snow in the far southwest late tonight with another 
approaching shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

The extended forecast is highlighted by near normal temperatures and 
some light precipitation Tuesday before more widespread 
precipitation for the weekend. 

The aforementioned shortwave will quickly follow the one today, 
although slightly further to the south. The chance of precipitation 
will spread east throughout the day, but staying mainly south of 
Interstate 94. Another light QPF / low impact event, with only a few 
tenths of snow expected in the southernmost tier of North Dakota 
counties. There could also be some rain on the back side of the 
precipitation field, dependent on timing of the shortwave. 

Wednesday should be the warmest day of the extended forecast, with 
breezy westerly winds and warm air advection across the area from a 
clipper system and associated warm front passing through. However, 
this will be short lived, with the clipper's cold front following 
overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Latest national blend has 
a very small chance for snow in the southwest with this frontal 
passage. Thursday will be cooler and windy with modest cold air 
advection and pressure rises in the wake of the cold front. The 
current forecast is for sustained winds to 25 mph, but could see 
these needing to be increase in the next day or two once there's a 
bit more agreement between model guidance. 

Continuing to trend towards a more active pattern for the weekend, 
with guidance becoming slightly more consistent for the chance for 
some sort of precipitation across the area. Still plenty of 
uncertainty regarding timing/location/amount, but something we'll
be watching over the next few days. Unfortunately, CIPs analogs 
and CPC outlooks both suggest below average temperatures this 
weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

KBIS begins the taf with MVFR cigs, but is forecast to improve
to VFR around 19z Monday. Otherwise sct/bkn VFR cigs this taf 
period with light winds. A VCSH was added at KXWA through 21z
Monday with light snow expected in the vicinity. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KS