575 FXUS63 KBIS 091737 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Latest satellite imagery shows low clouds have eroded over the James River Valley, and should see improvements south central in the next couple of hours. Perhaps some sunshine, but mid and high clouds over southwest ND are moving northeast, and this will likely keep mostly cloudy conditions going. Precipitation over northeastern Montana has not quite reach Sidney but still light snow/rain to develop over northwest ND this afternoon. A couple CAMS's indicating weak development over southwest ND this afternoon as well. We have some PoPs in the southwest later this afternoon, but these may need some adjustment in the next couple of hours. Rest of the forecast is on track. UPDATE Issued at 857 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 Latest fog/stratus imagery loop and surface observations show cloudy conditions across central North Dakota, and also cloudy west with mid and high clouds. Have utilized the HRRR/RAP/GFSLamp to update sky grids which signal to keep the stratus into central ND until 18z. Regional radar shows reflectivities align well with mid level/700mb frontogenesis over eastern Montana. Frontogenesis is forecast to weaken after it crosses our western border this afternoon. Current PoPs and a snow/rain weather type looks good for now. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 The stratus deck over central ND is rather persistent and has not diminished all that much over the past few hours. High-res model guidance has been struggling a bit with this trend, so updated sky cover in line with current nighttime satellite imagery. Also added in flurries over the Minot area for the next 2 hours, with the AFB reporting light snow. In the meantime, higher clouds have begun streaming into the state ahead of the approaching shortwave. A band of light snow is oriented southwest- northeast in central Montana, slowly moving northeast towards the western North Dakota border. Updated precipitation chances and QPF with latest model guidance, but not much changed in terms of timing and snow amounts. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 The short term forecast is highlighted by a chance for rain and snow this afternoon and evening, mainly west and north. Quiet conditions this morning as surface high pressure sits north of the International Border, while a low-level stratus deck continues to sit over central North Dakota. Temperatures in the far north central have dropped to the single digits where the stratus deck has eroded away, while south central locations still under the cloud shield are in the mid 20s. Southwest flow aloft will become more zonal this morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough, with a chance of light snow across mainly the western and northern parts of the forecast area. Not much change from previous forecasts in that little to no accumulation is expected in most areas, with the greatest chance for more than just a dusting in the northwest. Latest iteration of the RAP does show some low-level frontogenesis in the northwest along with lapse rates between 6.5 - 7.0 C/km and strong warm air advection, which could help produce slightly higher snow amounts. However, most guidance has consistently been showing only a few hundreths of QPF, so at this point can't see anywhere receiving more than a half inch to an inch of snow. Temperatures will rebound nicely in the southwest compared to yesterday, with today's highs in the mid 40s. Northwest and central, expect highs in the 30s, while the Turtle Mountains through the James Valley will likely only be in the mid 20s. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer in the east central, staying in the teens, while the southwest will see lows in the mid 20s. There is a slight chance of snow in the far southwest late tonight with another approaching shortwave. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 The extended forecast is highlighted by near normal temperatures and some light precipitation Tuesday before more widespread precipitation for the weekend. The aforementioned shortwave will quickly follow the one today, although slightly further to the south. The chance of precipitation will spread east throughout the day, but staying mainly south of Interstate 94. Another light QPF / low impact event, with only a few tenths of snow expected in the southernmost tier of North Dakota counties. There could also be some rain on the back side of the precipitation field, dependent on timing of the shortwave. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the extended forecast, with breezy westerly winds and warm air advection across the area from a clipper system and associated warm front passing through. However, this will be short lived, with the clipper's cold front following overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Latest national blend has a very small chance for snow in the southwest with this frontal passage. Thursday will be cooler and windy with modest cold air advection and pressure rises in the wake of the cold front. The current forecast is for sustained winds to 25 mph, but could see these needing to be increase in the next day or two once there's a bit more agreement between model guidance. Continuing to trend towards a more active pattern for the weekend, with guidance becoming slightly more consistent for the chance for some sort of precipitation across the area. Still plenty of uncertainty regarding timing/location/amount, but something we'll be watching over the next few days. Unfortunately, CIPs analogs and CPC outlooks both suggest below average temperatures this weekend and into the start of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020 KBIS begins the taf with MVFR cigs, but is forecast to improve to VFR around 19z Monday. Otherwise sct/bkn VFR cigs this taf period with light winds. A VCSH was added at KXWA through 21z Monday with light snow expected in the vicinity. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...KS