372 
FXUS63 KIND 040442
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1142 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 500 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

A few chances of rain are possible this week with above average
temperatures. Warm and dry conditions are expected this weekend 
followed by rain likely Monday into Tuesday of next week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /This Afternoon and Tonight/...

Issued at 500 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

Winds will continue to gust up to 40 mph with locally higher 
gusts possible through the afternoon and into the evening. Winds
will die down within a few hours after sunset. Otherwise, the rest
of the night will be mostly quiet with lows in the mid to upper
30s. There will be a brief clearing of clouds overnight before
another upper wave brings in more clouds and possibly light rain
in our northern counties near sunrise. 


&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Friday/...

Issued at 500 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

A wave is expected to move through the area Wednesday leading to
increased cloud cover and a possibility of rain across our
northern counties during the morning hours. The next chance of
rain comes Thursday night through Friday as a low pressure system
tracks from the northern Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New
York. Models are currently in pretty good agreement on this track
of the low, meaning central Indiana will possibly see the back
side rain of the system, but should the track shift further west
than is currently expected, it could lead to more rain in our
area. Will continue to monitor how this low evolves. Behind the
low system, a strong ridge leading to dry conditions for the end 
of the week. 

Above normal temperatures are expected for the short term period
with slightly below normal temps on Friday as the back side of the
low will lead to northwesterly flow. 


&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

Quiet weather is expected for the weekend with high pressure 
building over the area. Temperatures will be well above normal with 
highs reaching the 60s throughout the entire area on Sunday. Early 
next week, models are in good agreement that a system will approach 
to bring rain to the area. There may be some instability to bring 
isolated thunderstorms, but probability is low enough to leave out 
at this time. High confidence in above normal temperature after 
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 040600z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

GFS LAMP and SREF support VFR conditions through the TAF period. The 
one exception could be a brief window of showers and MVFR at KLAF 
12z-15z as an upper wave moves through. Low level wind shear is 
expected  as well 10z-15z as a low level jet moves overhead.

Southwest winds 5 to 9 knots will shift to the northwest 10 to 15 
knots after 16z-18z following the passage of a backdoor weak front.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KH
NEAR TERM...KH
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM....CP 
AVIATION...MK