038 
FXUS61 KCLE 210850
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
350 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to move to the 
southeastern United States today. Mostly quiet weather
is expected through the weekend. Another storm system will bring
milder weather and widespread rainfall by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet weather and a slow warming trend is in the forecast for
the next 2 days. We have cleared out almost all the lake effect
clouds except for the northwest Pennsylvania this morning. The
trend will continue to clear out for everywhere later today.
High pressure is currently near the Mid-Mississippi Valley
region this morning and will continue to move towards the
southeastern U.S. though Saturday. We will see plenty of sunshine
today with temperatures rebounding back to the middle and upper
30s this afternoon. Winds will also increase from the southwest
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. Mostly
clear or fair skies will continue tonight and Saturday as well
as breezy southwesterly winds through Saturday. High
temperatures by Saturday afternoon will be back in the middle
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Active and fast moving upper level pattern still in place as we head 
into the weekend.  A series of weak upper level ridges and shortwave 
troughs will move through the area through this period. However, 
moisture will be non-existent through Sunday until the next storm 
system and vigorous upper level shortwave move toward the area. 
Surface low pressure will move east through central California to 
the Oklahoma Panhandle and then lift northeast toward the area 
Sunday into Monday night.  The system will tap into some moisture 
from the Gulf of Mexico and begin to spread precipitation in the 
form of rain or rain/snow mix late Sunday night into Monday night.
The overall flow pattern will cause warm air advection to take place 
across the forecast area through this period as surface high 
pressure shifts off the East Coast Sunday with return southerly flow 
into the local area.  Looking at lows Saturday night in the 20s 
warming to the 30s by Sunday night and near 40 by Monday night. Day 
time highs in the upper 40s Sunday and middle 40s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long term models are in very good agreement with the placement and 
timing of the surface low that appears to bomb out during this 
forecast period over our local area.  A deep digging upper level 
trough will dive southeast out of Alberta, Canada and will usher in 
some pretty cold air to the region.  A shortwave trough will move 
northeast across the local area Monday night causing surface low 
pressure to move northeast through the area as well.  The surface 
low and shortwave trough will slow in forward motion and become 
caught up under the deep upper level trough.  As the trough becomes 
slightly negatively tilted, surface low pressure begins to intensify 
over West Virginia and become vertically stacked under the 
developing upper level low.  The low will deepen further as it moves 
northeast of the area and finally force the Arctic air into the 
local area Wednesday night into Thursday.  Two big questions remain 
this far out.  One is how much warm air gets entrained early in the 
deepening process from the Atlantic Ocean to keep the precipitation 
either all rain or a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Wednesday 
night.  The second question is the exact track of the low.  Will the 
surface low favor a more easterly track and development along the 
close a bit further away from the upper level trough? If a further 
east track is the case, then the colder air will wrap in a bit 
quicker Wednesday night and keep precipitation more in the form of 
snow than rain.  As of right now and the projected track, I think 
the transition from rain to snow will be fairly quick Wednesday 
night. Winds will be increasing with the low development and then 
taper off Thursday into Thursday night as the surface low pulls out 
to the northeast.  Temperatures Tuesday will be on the mild side in 
the upper 40s cooling to the lower 40s Wednesday and upper 20s by 
Thursday. Lows in the 30s Tuesday night and middle 20s Wednesday 
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure will be around the region through the TAF period
with VFR conditions. The only potential impacts to aviation
will be the gusty winds that develop late Friday morning 
through Friday evening with southwesterly winds 12 to 15 knots
and gusts over 20 knots. Some lake effect clouds 3500 feet and
above will scattered out by sunrise. Mostly fair skies are
expected through Friday evening.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with widespread snow and/or rain
early Monday morning through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A small craft advisory will be hoisted for this afternoon through 
tomorrow afternoon as southwest flow increases today.  Highest waves 
appear they will be initially in the outer portions of the nearshore 
forecast zones and then build in height closer to shore later 
tonight.  Expecting winds to diminish tomorrow afternoon lowering 
the threat for the small craft advisory conditions.  Western basin 
should not see small craft advisory waves over the next couple days. 
Winds will remain southwest through Sunday night and then become 
northeast by Tuesday and then northwest by Tuesday night as low 
pressure system moves through the local area. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST 
     Saturday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Lombardy