038 FXUS61 KCLE 210850 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 350 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to move to the southeastern United States today. Mostly quiet weather is expected through the weekend. Another storm system will bring milder weather and widespread rainfall by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Quiet weather and a slow warming trend is in the forecast for the next 2 days. We have cleared out almost all the lake effect clouds except for the northwest Pennsylvania this morning. The trend will continue to clear out for everywhere later today. High pressure is currently near the Mid-Mississippi Valley region this morning and will continue to move towards the southeastern U.S. though Saturday. We will see plenty of sunshine today with temperatures rebounding back to the middle and upper 30s this afternoon. Winds will also increase from the southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. Mostly clear or fair skies will continue tonight and Saturday as well as breezy southwesterly winds through Saturday. High temperatures by Saturday afternoon will be back in the middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Active and fast moving upper level pattern still in place as we head into the weekend. A series of weak upper level ridges and shortwave troughs will move through the area through this period. However, moisture will be non-existent through Sunday until the next storm system and vigorous upper level shortwave move toward the area. Surface low pressure will move east through central California to the Oklahoma Panhandle and then lift northeast toward the area Sunday into Monday night. The system will tap into some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and begin to spread precipitation in the form of rain or rain/snow mix late Sunday night into Monday night. The overall flow pattern will cause warm air advection to take place across the forecast area through this period as surface high pressure shifts off the East Coast Sunday with return southerly flow into the local area. Looking at lows Saturday night in the 20s warming to the 30s by Sunday night and near 40 by Monday night. Day time highs in the upper 40s Sunday and middle 40s Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Long term models are in very good agreement with the placement and timing of the surface low that appears to bomb out during this forecast period over our local area. A deep digging upper level trough will dive southeast out of Alberta, Canada and will usher in some pretty cold air to the region. A shortwave trough will move northeast across the local area Monday night causing surface low pressure to move northeast through the area as well. The surface low and shortwave trough will slow in forward motion and become caught up under the deep upper level trough. As the trough becomes slightly negatively tilted, surface low pressure begins to intensify over West Virginia and become vertically stacked under the developing upper level low. The low will deepen further as it moves northeast of the area and finally force the Arctic air into the local area Wednesday night into Thursday. Two big questions remain this far out. One is how much warm air gets entrained early in the deepening process from the Atlantic Ocean to keep the precipitation either all rain or a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Wednesday night. The second question is the exact track of the low. Will the surface low favor a more easterly track and development along the close a bit further away from the upper level trough? If a further east track is the case, then the colder air will wrap in a bit quicker Wednesday night and keep precipitation more in the form of snow than rain. As of right now and the projected track, I think the transition from rain to snow will be fairly quick Wednesday night. Winds will be increasing with the low development and then taper off Thursday into Thursday night as the surface low pulls out to the northeast. Temperatures Tuesday will be on the mild side in the upper 40s cooling to the lower 40s Wednesday and upper 20s by Thursday. Lows in the 30s Tuesday night and middle 20s Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... High pressure will be around the region through the TAF period with VFR conditions. The only potential impacts to aviation will be the gusty winds that develop late Friday morning through Friday evening with southwesterly winds 12 to 15 knots and gusts over 20 knots. Some lake effect clouds 3500 feet and above will scattered out by sunrise. Mostly fair skies are expected through Friday evening. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with widespread snow and/or rain early Monday morning through Tuesday. && .MARINE... A small craft advisory will be hoisted for this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon as southwest flow increases today. Highest waves appear they will be initially in the outer portions of the nearshore forecast zones and then build in height closer to shore later tonight. Expecting winds to diminish tomorrow afternoon lowering the threat for the small craft advisory conditions. Western basin should not see small craft advisory waves over the next couple days. Winds will remain southwest through Sunday night and then become northeast by Tuesday and then northwest by Tuesday night as low pressure system moves through the local area. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Lombardy