843 
FXUS62 KJAX 010751
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
251 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A weak frontal wave/low will move across the I-4 corridor today
with isentropic and moisture lift overriding the cooler air north
of the front. This will result in cloudy skies and unseasonably
cool conditions with steady light to moderate precipitation south
of I-10 through the early afternoon. By evening the low begins to
pull offshore with drying conditions over Florida. Across
southeast Georgia looking at a mainly cloudy and raw day with a
chilling northerly flow. Clearing skies and cold tonight. 

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

High pressure will build over the area on Sunday, giving us
a dry and sunny day with highs in the low-mid 60s and a cool
Sunday night with good raditional cooling on tap with 
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Deep layer ridging will be centered over the area Monday, 
then move off the eastern seaboard Monday night. On Tuesday, 
mid and upper level troughing will start to amplify over the 
4-corners region as a couple impulses infringe near the far
interior southeast GA during the overnight hours where isolated
light showers are possible. Moderating temperatures will occur
Monday and Tuesday with a south to southwesterly flow prevail 
during this period.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Temperatures will climb about 10 to 15 above normal Wednesday
and Thursday ahead of the cold front. By late Wednesday, another
cold front will extend from west TN to New Orleans while the upper
trof amplifies and migrates eastward over the Central CONUS late 
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  As a result a couple of weak 
impulses caught up in the southwesterly flow aloft and with 
moisture advection off from the GOM with swly flow at the surface
will lend to some isolated showers to widely scattered showers 
east of highway 301 and more numerous west of highway 301 Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning ahead of the encroaching cold front. 

The system on Thursday is anticipated to be a more dynamic system, 
with a low level (850 mb) jet of around 50-60 knots over the eastern
part of SE GA and NE FL Thursday afternoon. Though there is a slight 
timing discrepancy between the GFS and the Euro (Euro is still six hours
slower, moving the front in Thurs night-Fri), both show enhanced MLCAPE
over the area of 600-1100 J/kg along with strong 0-6 km shear of 
60-70 knots and strong 0-1 km shear of around 40 knots, particularly
eastern half of CWA. If this environment does indeed develop over the 
area ahead of a strong frontal boundary, then we could see severe weather: 
tornadoes and damaging winds, possibly even some hail. The Storm Prediction
Center has the region highlighted late Thursday into Thursday night with
instability and shear trends a little more robust. There's still a lot 
of uncertainty this far out and continue to monitor trends with timing, 
position and strength of this system. 

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

IFR and LIFR ceilings along with light rain showers, drizzle, and
patchy fog will continue until 16-18Z today over all area TAF 
sites. Ceilings should begin to lift from IFR/LIFR to MVFR between
18-21Z and further rise to VFR after 00Z as winds back to the 
northwest and filter in drier air over the regional terminals 
while low pressure pulls northeast away from the area. 

&&

.MARINE...

A weak frontal wave/low pressure system will move out of the Gulf
of Mexico today and to the coast of the Carolinas tonight. This 
will bring the winds around to the northwest at 20 knots with seas
to 7 feet for the offshore portion. Winds and seas should briefly
subside Saturday morning, only to increase again as high pressure
builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Lighter winds and seas are 
expected Monday through Wednesday as the ridge moves across 
Florida before a strong cold front moves across the southeast 
later next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  56  39  62  41  71 /  20   0   0   0   0 
SSI  56  42  62  45  68 /  20   0   0   0   0 
JAX  59  42  65  43  72 /  40   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  59  43  63  44  69 /  70   0   0   0   0 
GNV  62  40  64  41  72 /  60   0   0   0   0 
OCF  63  42  65  41  73 /  70   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST 
     Sunday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina 
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to 
     St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine 
     to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&