843 FXUS62 KJAX 010751 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 251 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A weak frontal wave/low will move across the I-4 corridor today with isentropic and moisture lift overriding the cooler air north of the front. This will result in cloudy skies and unseasonably cool conditions with steady light to moderate precipitation south of I-10 through the early afternoon. By evening the low begins to pull offshore with drying conditions over Florida. Across southeast Georgia looking at a mainly cloudy and raw day with a chilling northerly flow. Clearing skies and cold tonight. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... High pressure will build over the area on Sunday, giving us a dry and sunny day with highs in the low-mid 60s and a cool Sunday night with good raditional cooling on tap with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Deep layer ridging will be centered over the area Monday, then move off the eastern seaboard Monday night. On Tuesday, mid and upper level troughing will start to amplify over the 4-corners region as a couple impulses infringe near the far interior southeast GA during the overnight hours where isolated light showers are possible. Moderating temperatures will occur Monday and Tuesday with a south to southwesterly flow prevail during this period. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Temperatures will climb about 10 to 15 above normal Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front. By late Wednesday, another cold front will extend from west TN to New Orleans while the upper trof amplifies and migrates eastward over the Central CONUS late Wednesday and Wednesday night. As a result a couple of weak impulses caught up in the southwesterly flow aloft and with moisture advection off from the GOM with swly flow at the surface will lend to some isolated showers to widely scattered showers east of highway 301 and more numerous west of highway 301 Wednesday night into early Thursday morning ahead of the encroaching cold front. The system on Thursday is anticipated to be a more dynamic system, with a low level (850 mb) jet of around 50-60 knots over the eastern part of SE GA and NE FL Thursday afternoon. Though there is a slight timing discrepancy between the GFS and the Euro (Euro is still six hours slower, moving the front in Thurs night-Fri), both show enhanced MLCAPE over the area of 600-1100 J/kg along with strong 0-6 km shear of 60-70 knots and strong 0-1 km shear of around 40 knots, particularly eastern half of CWA. If this environment does indeed develop over the area ahead of a strong frontal boundary, then we could see severe weather: tornadoes and damaging winds, possibly even some hail. The Storm Prediction Center has the region highlighted late Thursday into Thursday night with instability and shear trends a little more robust. There's still a lot of uncertainty this far out and continue to monitor trends with timing, position and strength of this system. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Sunday] IFR and LIFR ceilings along with light rain showers, drizzle, and patchy fog will continue until 16-18Z today over all area TAF sites. Ceilings should begin to lift from IFR/LIFR to MVFR between 18-21Z and further rise to VFR after 00Z as winds back to the northwest and filter in drier air over the regional terminals while low pressure pulls northeast away from the area. && .MARINE... A weak frontal wave/low pressure system will move out of the Gulf of Mexico today and to the coast of the Carolinas tonight. This will bring the winds around to the northwest at 20 knots with seas to 7 feet for the offshore portion. Winds and seas should briefly subside Saturday morning, only to increase again as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Lighter winds and seas are expected Monday through Wednesday as the ridge moves across Florida before a strong cold front moves across the southeast later next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 56 39 62 41 71 / 20 0 0 0 0 SSI 56 42 62 45 68 / 20 0 0 0 0 JAX 59 42 65 43 72 / 40 0 0 0 0 SGJ 59 43 63 44 69 / 70 0 0 0 0 GNV 62 40 64 41 72 / 60 0 0 0 0 OCF 63 42 65 41 73 / 70 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&