551 
FXUS63 KLMK 112019
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

Current radar imagery shows widespread light to moderate rainfall 
across the region ahead of the approaching cold front as a 50-60 kt 
LLJ remains over central/eastern KY. Rain totals are currently 
around 1.5 inches over west-central KY and decrease to about a half 
inch over east-central KY. As rainfall continues over the next 
several hours, some minor flooding issues could arise around low 
water crossings and typical flood prone areas. The cold front, which 
is currently draped across southwestern IN and western KY, is 
expected to slowly push eastward across the area, exiting the region 
later tonight. Rain will exit from west to east behind the front, 
with PoPs tapering off in the east before Midnight EST. Winds 
have dropped off significantly behind the earlier line of stronger
convection, but models suggest we could see gusts pick up a bit 
again this evening and into tonight as the pressure gradient 
tightens behind the departing system. 

Behind the front, expect low level clouds to linger overnight and 
throughout the day tomorrow as time heights continue to indicate low-
level moisture remaining trapped under an inversion. Otherwise, 
expect calmer weather for Sunday as surface high pressure builds 
over the region. Temperatures will tumble into the mid 30s/low 40s 
range tonight behind the front, and will then warm up into the mid 
40s/50s tomorrow.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

Sunday night and Monday look dry with general surface high pressure 
east of the Mississippi. Temperatures should be 10-15 degrees above 
normal.

Broad southwest upper flow behind a ridge over Bermuda and ahead of 
a trough over the Plains will be a zone of scattered shower activity 
Monday night through Tuesday night with weak isentropic lift and a 
supply of Gulf moisture. How far north this activity reaches is 
unclear, but will allow for scattered showers in the forecast. Any 
rainfall amounts will be light.

Wednesday a shortwave trough will pass through the Great Lakes and 
Ohio Valley. Looks like QPF may be overdone on the ECMWF; will lean 
more toward the GFS/CMC solution for now. There is significant 
spread among the GEFS members but most are clustered on the drier 
side of the envelope.

A stronger system will move in on Friday and Saturday with more 
widespread rains...around an inch of QPF.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

Band of strong storms expected to push through KLEX in the next 
hour, with widespread light to moderate rainfall moving across the 
region behind. Rain will end from west to east this evening. Have 
seen significant drops in wind speeds behind this line. This 
evening, winds will veer to the west at 10-15 kts and wind gusts are 
expected to pick-up again on the back side of the system. The gusts 
will not reach the strength of earlier today and are expected to top 
out in the 20-30 kt range. Ceilings are expected to fall into low 
MVFR range by this evening and last throughout the TAF period, with 
HNB being most likely to experience IFR cigs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for 
     INZ076>079-083-084-089.

     Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for 
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ023.

     Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for 
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

$$

Short Term...JML
Long Term...13
Aviation...JML