551 FXUS63 KLMK 112019 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 319 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 .Short Term...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 Current radar imagery shows widespread light to moderate rainfall across the region ahead of the approaching cold front as a 50-60 kt LLJ remains over central/eastern KY. Rain totals are currently around 1.5 inches over west-central KY and decrease to about a half inch over east-central KY. As rainfall continues over the next several hours, some minor flooding issues could arise around low water crossings and typical flood prone areas. The cold front, which is currently draped across southwestern IN and western KY, is expected to slowly push eastward across the area, exiting the region later tonight. Rain will exit from west to east behind the front, with PoPs tapering off in the east before Midnight EST. Winds have dropped off significantly behind the earlier line of stronger convection, but models suggest we could see gusts pick up a bit again this evening and into tonight as the pressure gradient tightens behind the departing system. Behind the front, expect low level clouds to linger overnight and throughout the day tomorrow as time heights continue to indicate low- level moisture remaining trapped under an inversion. Otherwise, expect calmer weather for Sunday as surface high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will tumble into the mid 30s/low 40s range tonight behind the front, and will then warm up into the mid 40s/50s tomorrow. && .Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 Sunday night and Monday look dry with general surface high pressure east of the Mississippi. Temperatures should be 10-15 degrees above normal. Broad southwest upper flow behind a ridge over Bermuda and ahead of a trough over the Plains will be a zone of scattered shower activity Monday night through Tuesday night with weak isentropic lift and a supply of Gulf moisture. How far north this activity reaches is unclear, but will allow for scattered showers in the forecast. Any rainfall amounts will be light. Wednesday a shortwave trough will pass through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Looks like QPF may be overdone on the ECMWF; will lean more toward the GFS/CMC solution for now. There is significant spread among the GEFS members but most are clustered on the drier side of the envelope. A stronger system will move in on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rains...around an inch of QPF. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1255 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 Band of strong storms expected to push through KLEX in the next hour, with widespread light to moderate rainfall moving across the region behind. Rain will end from west to east this evening. Have seen significant drops in wind speeds behind this line. This evening, winds will veer to the west at 10-15 kts and wind gusts are expected to pick-up again on the back side of the system. The gusts will not reach the strength of earlier today and are expected to top out in the 20-30 kt range. Ceilings are expected to fall into low MVFR range by this evening and last throughout the TAF period, with HNB being most likely to experience IFR cigs. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089. Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ023. Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. && $$ Short Term...JML Long Term...13 Aviation...JML