452 
FXUS62 KJAX 071313
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
813 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020


.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...
Morning fog and low clouds have advected off the Gulf across parts
of ne Fl in a light sw flow. Expect the fog to burn off by mid-
morning with winds increasing as a dry cold front approaches and 
moves through the area this afternoon. Temperatures will reach the
upper 60s/lower 70s today with gusty sw winds shifting to the nw
with the frontal passage. Cool and drier air behind the front will
mean slightly cooler temperatures tonight with patchy frost
possible over inland se Ga and the Suwannee Valley of ne Fl. 

.AVIATION...[Through 12Z Wednesday]
Low clouds/fog may affect JAX and VQQ til around 14z as morning 
stratus advects advects across parts of ne Fl from the Gulf of 
Mexico. Otherwise VFR conditions with mostly clear skies today and
tonight. WSW winds will increase to 10-15 knots and gusts to near
20 knots this afternoon...with a shift to the WNW after 20Z as a 
dry cold front moves across the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [541 AM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

A low level ridge of high pressure will move over the southeastern
U.S. Wednesday through Thursday, rendering dry conditions and 
partly cloudy skies. After a cold start Wednesday morning, we'll
warm up to near normal conditions for Wednesday afternoon and
night. By Thursday, the ridge will move offshore and we'll begin 
to trend above normal as southeasterly flow brings a return of 
warm, moist air to the region.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Deep layer ridging will settle into place over Bermuda on Friday,
leading to south-southwesterly flow from the surface to around 
500 mb and mostly zonal flow aloft. To the west, an amplified mi-
upper level trough will move from the Four Corners Region into the
southern Plains, developing a surface reflection just ahead of it
in the southern Plains. A potent frontal system will develop and
move into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. This low 
pressure system and its front are forecast to lift northeastward 
Saturday night as the decaying upper level shortwave driving it 
moves off, leaving our area likely southeast of the frontal 
boundary. On Sunday, another upper level shortwave will move into 
the southern Plains and reinvigorate the southern end of the 
frontal boundary. This could allow the frontal boundary to move 
into our area around Monday before then stalling out over us early
next week.

Model guidance suggests that this weekend's system will have a
very strong wind field and pull in a generous amount of
instability, but that the majority of the impacts from this 
(including the potential for severe weather) are currently 
expected to remain to our west. However, it's still far enough out
that the threat areas could shift further east. The Storm 
Prediction Center is currently highlighting our neighbors to the 
west in a rare Day 6 slight risk area, so please stay tuned to 
your local forecast for updates on this system.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak, dry cold front will move offshore tonight, leading to 
north-northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots over nearshore waters, 
and north-northwest winds of 20 knots with occasional gusts to 
around 30 knots over offshore waters. These wind speeds will 
lower before sunrise Wednesday morning. On Thursday, ahead of our
next cold front, south winds of around 20 knots will be possible
again. The approaching cold front will bring chances for showers 
to our coastal waters this weekend, though it may lift north 
early next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A dry cold front will cross through the region today, leading to
strong northwest transport winds of around 15 to 20 knots and
dispersion indices above 75. A drier air mass will move in on
Wednesday, with afternoon RH values dipping to around 30% in SE GA
and the Suwannee Valley, however winds will be lighter on
Wednesday, so no red flag conditions are forecast. RH values will
increase ahead of our next cold front, which will bring a return
for chances of showers this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  66  36  61  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  66  43  61  46  68 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JAX  71  41  63  45  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  70  45  63  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GNV  70  40  63  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  71  41  65  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST 
     Wednesday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina 
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to 
     St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine 
     to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&