452 FXUS62 KJAX 071313 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 813 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 .NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]... Morning fog and low clouds have advected off the Gulf across parts of ne Fl in a light sw flow. Expect the fog to burn off by mid- morning with winds increasing as a dry cold front approaches and moves through the area this afternoon. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s/lower 70s today with gusty sw winds shifting to the nw with the frontal passage. Cool and drier air behind the front will mean slightly cooler temperatures tonight with patchy frost possible over inland se Ga and the Suwannee Valley of ne Fl. .AVIATION...[Through 12Z Wednesday] Low clouds/fog may affect JAX and VQQ til around 14z as morning stratus advects advects across parts of ne Fl from the Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise VFR conditions with mostly clear skies today and tonight. WSW winds will increase to 10-15 knots and gusts to near 20 knots this afternoon...with a shift to the WNW after 20Z as a dry cold front moves across the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION [541 AM EST]... .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]... A low level ridge of high pressure will move over the southeastern U.S. Wednesday through Thursday, rendering dry conditions and partly cloudy skies. After a cold start Wednesday morning, we'll warm up to near normal conditions for Wednesday afternoon and night. By Thursday, the ridge will move offshore and we'll begin to trend above normal as southeasterly flow brings a return of warm, moist air to the region. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... Deep layer ridging will settle into place over Bermuda on Friday, leading to south-southwesterly flow from the surface to around 500 mb and mostly zonal flow aloft. To the west, an amplified mi- upper level trough will move from the Four Corners Region into the southern Plains, developing a surface reflection just ahead of it in the southern Plains. A potent frontal system will develop and move into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. This low pressure system and its front are forecast to lift northeastward Saturday night as the decaying upper level shortwave driving it moves off, leaving our area likely southeast of the frontal boundary. On Sunday, another upper level shortwave will move into the southern Plains and reinvigorate the southern end of the frontal boundary. This could allow the frontal boundary to move into our area around Monday before then stalling out over us early next week. Model guidance suggests that this weekend's system will have a very strong wind field and pull in a generous amount of instability, but that the majority of the impacts from this (including the potential for severe weather) are currently expected to remain to our west. However, it's still far enough out that the threat areas could shift further east. The Storm Prediction Center is currently highlighting our neighbors to the west in a rare Day 6 slight risk area, so please stay tuned to your local forecast for updates on this system. && .MARINE... A weak, dry cold front will move offshore tonight, leading to north-northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots over nearshore waters, and north-northwest winds of 20 knots with occasional gusts to around 30 knots over offshore waters. These wind speeds will lower before sunrise Wednesday morning. On Thursday, ahead of our next cold front, south winds of around 20 knots will be possible again. The approaching cold front will bring chances for showers to our coastal waters this weekend, though it may lift north early next week. .FIRE WEATHER... A dry cold front will cross through the region today, leading to strong northwest transport winds of around 15 to 20 knots and dispersion indices above 75. A drier air mass will move in on Wednesday, with afternoon RH values dipping to around 30% in SE GA and the Suwannee Valley, however winds will be lighter on Wednesday, so no red flag conditions are forecast. RH values will increase ahead of our next cold front, which will bring a return for chances of showers this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 66 36 61 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 66 43 61 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 71 41 63 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 70 45 63 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 70 40 63 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 71 41 65 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&