107 
FXUS63 KFGF 280349
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

Some patchy fog or mist extends eastward from Detroit Lakes
through Hubbard and Wadena Counties... into east-central MN. Else
main approaching system is edging northeastward from Nebraska into
eastern SD attm. General timing is still on track, though could
see some break between Sat am snow and later Sat-Sun heavy snow.

UPDATE Issued at 608 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

A quick update mainly for aviation purposes. Else forecast package
on track for fairly quiet evening, increasing clouds into the
southern Red River Basin overnight... and some light snow starting
early on Saturday there. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

Onset of precipitation and how fast winter impacts arrive will be
the main headache for the period.

Water vapor loop shows split flow with the upper low still
rotating over AZ. Heights across the Northern Plains will rise 
just a bit tonight ahead of the main low, but then a lead
shortwave coming out late tonight into Saturday along with warm
air advection will begin the precipitation. There is still some
variation with the ensemble members on how fast our southern
counties will see precipitation. There is not the dry high
pressure to our northeast that often causes saturation to take
longer than expected, so think locations near the SD border will
start seeing some precipitation just before sunrise. Model
soundings in this area also have warm air aloft on Saturday, so 
have some freezing rain mixing in across at least our southeastern
counties. The snow will be a bit slower to arrive further north.
Think that impacts will mainly be limited to slick roads during
the day on Saturday with a bit of ice and 1-3 inches mostly south
of Highway 2. However, on consultation with neighboring offices,
elected to start to the warning Saturday morning/early afternoon
and will state in wording about the severe impacts holding off
until Saturday night/Sunday. 

That time period is when the upper low finally ejects out into
eastern Neb/SD and the surface low deepens and moves into southern
MN. The main mid level deformation band sets up over the CWA as
the surface low moves into southern MN. After a bit of a break
during Saturday evening, heavy snow will start ramping up after
midnight. Winds will start ramp up over eastern ND, with some
blowing snow starting to cause impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

Sunday through Monday...The upper low wraps up over the upper
midwest Sunday, stalling a bit with moisture wrapping
northwestward into our area. There are signs of some mid level dry
air being entrained into the system across eastern portions of the
CWA, along with some warmer air. Freezing rain or drizzle could
complicate things during the day on Sunday. But think the bulk of
the precipitation will be snow, with over 6 inches possible across
all but the Devils Lake Basin, and over 12 inches possible in
portions of southeastern ND and the far southern RRV with strong
synoptic forcing as well as some weak mid level frontogenesis. 
Winds will also bring blowing snow with periodic whiteout 
conditions. Kept blizzard headline out for now due to uncertainty 
on how long or how widespread, but may need to upgrade at a later 
time. Quite a few of the ensemble members have a second low 
developing more over IN/IL by Sunday night, which would weaken the
low over MN a bit and heavy snow will begin to taper off a bit.
The winds will continue for a while longer, so with blowing snow
and light snow threat kept the warning going through Sunday night.
The upper low will slowly pull east Monday, with the gradient
relaxing. There will continue to be some light snow and decent
winds wrapping around the backside of the system, but by this
point the winter impacts should be starting to wind down. 

Tuesday through Friday...Minimal challenge with respect to 
impacts from New Years Eve through the end of next week. 

We'll be in the wake of the big storm come Tue with diminishing winds 
and any flurries limited to early in the day over eastern sections. 
Wed and Thu looks dry with the only potential weather maker lying in 
wait at the end of the period on Fri. Mainly zonal flow with perhaps 
an embedded short wave could target the area then with a more 
clipper-like surface reflection and, the way it looks now, minimally 
impactful light snow. 

Temps will remain above seasonal averages for next week, with highs 
of 25 to 30 and overnight lows comfortably above zero. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Updated at 949 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019

Area will remain VFR through 06 to 12Z Sat with light winds, 
generally AOB 10 kts. Storm system heading this way will spread
MVFR/IFR CIGS from SW to NE Sat morning. Looking for MVFR/IFR 
CIGS KFAR-KBJI from 12-14z, then reaching KGFK and KTVF from 
16-18z. Expect light snow moving along this line as well, with
Areas of LIFR CIGS and VSBY in moderate snow alg and south of a
JMS-GFK-ROX line from 20z onward...and VFR/IFR CIGS in light snow
into DVL. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for 
     NDZ049-052-053.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for 
     NDZ024-026>030-038-039.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday 
     for NDZ007-014-015-054.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for 
     NDZ008-016.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for 
     MNZ029-040.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for 
     MNZ001>003-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for 
     MNZ004>009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Gust