107 FXUS63 KFGF 280349 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 949 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Some patchy fog or mist extends eastward from Detroit Lakes through Hubbard and Wadena Counties... into east-central MN. Else main approaching system is edging northeastward from Nebraska into eastern SD attm. General timing is still on track, though could see some break between Sat am snow and later Sat-Sun heavy snow. UPDATE Issued at 608 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 A quick update mainly for aviation purposes. Else forecast package on track for fairly quiet evening, increasing clouds into the southern Red River Basin overnight... and some light snow starting early on Saturday there. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Onset of precipitation and how fast winter impacts arrive will be the main headache for the period. Water vapor loop shows split flow with the upper low still rotating over AZ. Heights across the Northern Plains will rise just a bit tonight ahead of the main low, but then a lead shortwave coming out late tonight into Saturday along with warm air advection will begin the precipitation. There is still some variation with the ensemble members on how fast our southern counties will see precipitation. There is not the dry high pressure to our northeast that often causes saturation to take longer than expected, so think locations near the SD border will start seeing some precipitation just before sunrise. Model soundings in this area also have warm air aloft on Saturday, so have some freezing rain mixing in across at least our southeastern counties. The snow will be a bit slower to arrive further north. Think that impacts will mainly be limited to slick roads during the day on Saturday with a bit of ice and 1-3 inches mostly south of Highway 2. However, on consultation with neighboring offices, elected to start to the warning Saturday morning/early afternoon and will state in wording about the severe impacts holding off until Saturday night/Sunday. That time period is when the upper low finally ejects out into eastern Neb/SD and the surface low deepens and moves into southern MN. The main mid level deformation band sets up over the CWA as the surface low moves into southern MN. After a bit of a break during Saturday evening, heavy snow will start ramping up after midnight. Winds will start ramp up over eastern ND, with some blowing snow starting to cause impacts. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Sunday through Monday...The upper low wraps up over the upper midwest Sunday, stalling a bit with moisture wrapping northwestward into our area. There are signs of some mid level dry air being entrained into the system across eastern portions of the CWA, along with some warmer air. Freezing rain or drizzle could complicate things during the day on Sunday. But think the bulk of the precipitation will be snow, with over 6 inches possible across all but the Devils Lake Basin, and over 12 inches possible in portions of southeastern ND and the far southern RRV with strong synoptic forcing as well as some weak mid level frontogenesis. Winds will also bring blowing snow with periodic whiteout conditions. Kept blizzard headline out for now due to uncertainty on how long or how widespread, but may need to upgrade at a later time. Quite a few of the ensemble members have a second low developing more over IN/IL by Sunday night, which would weaken the low over MN a bit and heavy snow will begin to taper off a bit. The winds will continue for a while longer, so with blowing snow and light snow threat kept the warning going through Sunday night. The upper low will slowly pull east Monday, with the gradient relaxing. There will continue to be some light snow and decent winds wrapping around the backside of the system, but by this point the winter impacts should be starting to wind down. Tuesday through Friday...Minimal challenge with respect to impacts from New Years Eve through the end of next week. We'll be in the wake of the big storm come Tue with diminishing winds and any flurries limited to early in the day over eastern sections. Wed and Thu looks dry with the only potential weather maker lying in wait at the end of the period on Fri. Mainly zonal flow with perhaps an embedded short wave could target the area then with a more clipper-like surface reflection and, the way it looks now, minimally impactful light snow. Temps will remain above seasonal averages for next week, with highs of 25 to 30 and overnight lows comfortably above zero. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Updated at 949 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Area will remain VFR through 06 to 12Z Sat with light winds, generally AOB 10 kts. Storm system heading this way will spread MVFR/IFR CIGS from SW to NE Sat morning. Looking for MVFR/IFR CIGS KFAR-KBJI from 12-14z, then reaching KGFK and KTVF from 16-18z. Expect light snow moving along this line as well, with Areas of LIFR CIGS and VSBY in moderate snow alg and south of a JMS-GFK-ROX line from 20z onward...and VFR/IFR CIGS in light snow into DVL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for NDZ049-052-053. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for NDZ024-026>030-038-039. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for NDZ007-014-015-054. Winter Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for NDZ008-016. MN...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ029-040. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ001>003-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032. Winter Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ004>009. && $$ UPDATE...Gust SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...WJB AVIATION...Gust