590 
FXUS63 KICT 241119
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
519 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019

Today-Mon Night:
Sun-drenched skies & light westerly winds that will slowly back
toward the SW & slightly increase will produce an almost ideal set
up for warmer weather this afternoon. Despite the remnant snow
cover, yesterday's highs still managed to reach the upper 40s in
Russell, Lincoln & Ellsworth counties & with this morning's temps
not nearly as cold as they were Saturday morning, raised maxes at
KGBD & KRSL about 3 degrees. Tonight's temperatures may be tricky
as clear skies and a light SW wind that will shift toward the NW
early Mon morning battle it out for dominant player. After a much
warmer afternoon the warmer MAV solution is preferred for tonights
lows with mid 30s assigned to all areas. On Monday, a weak cold
front settles across most of KS Mon morning with the front
arriving SE KS early in the afternoon. With the onset of NE 10-15
mph winds, it won't be quite as warm with highs from the mid 50s
in Central KS and the lower 60s across the S & SE. An upper-deck
trof is still scheduled to dig across the Southern Rockies Mon
Night. This would induce surface cyclogenesis in the vicinity of
SE CO, NE NM & the panhandles early Tue morning & set the stage
for a challenging forecast Tue & Tue night.

Tue & Tue Night:
On Tue, the pattern continues to get more dynamic. Solutions have
been very consistent in having the strong upper-deck shortwave
undergoing rapid cyclogenesis which would obviously strengthen the
surface low even further. This would induce a warm front to
rapidly develop from around the OK/KS border to Central MO. The
front's northward lift would play a major role in sharpening the
SE-NW temperature gradient across KS. Highs across SE & extreme SC
KS are still likely to reach 60-65 while in stark contrast Central
KS would only reach 45-50. There will be sufficient moisture along
the front to produce a light wintry mix in primarily Russell,
Lincoln & Barton counties Tue morning while light rain develops as
far south as Highway 400. The cyclone becomes EXTREMELY INTENSE as
it sprints across the Mid-MS Valley Tue Night before reaching WI/
Lake Michigan early Wed morning. Fortunately, the cyclone is a
quick-hitter & as such all precipitation should clear the KICT
jurisdiction by early Tue evening. This would also allow a strong
cold front to surge across KS Tue night that would combine with
compact high pressure scooting down the Front Range to produce
windy & much colder weather Tue night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019

Wed-Fri:
After a brief quiet period on Wed, the pattern again gets active.
A STRONG mid/upper cyclone develops over the western U.S. that'll
induce an intense surface cyclone to develop over WY & CO. The
isentropic ascent strengthens considerably which would induce rain
to develop across far south & southeast KS while light snow
develops in central KS Wed eve. The rain occurring across southern
KS should changeover to a light rain/light snow mixture then to
all snow Thanksgiving Morning. The lower-deck flow becomes SELY by
Thu afternoon which should transition the precipitation back to
rain. The surface cyclone that would be centered over WY & CO on
Wed begins to move E/NE on Fri. There's considerable disagreement
between the GFS (much stronger) and the ECMWF on how the cyclone
will evolve, but this much is certain: It appears that it'll be a
wet end to the work-week, especially for SE KS where a few
thunderstorms now appear possible. With three powerful systems
impacting the Plains, compounded by disparities amongst various
solutions, changes to the forecast are likely & may be significant
so please stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  36  60  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      65  34  60  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          60  36  56  35 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        61  36  60  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   63  37  62  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         63  34  54  29 /   0   0   0  10 
Great Bend      64  34  55  30 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          62  34  58  33 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       62  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     63  37  62  41 /   0   0   0  10 
Chanute         61  37  61  40 /   0   0   0  10 
Iola            61  37  60  39 /   0   0   0  10 
Parsons-KPPF    62  37  63  41 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...Ketcham