590 FXUS63 KICT 241119 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 519 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 Today-Mon Night: Sun-drenched skies & light westerly winds that will slowly back toward the SW & slightly increase will produce an almost ideal set up for warmer weather this afternoon. Despite the remnant snow cover, yesterday's highs still managed to reach the upper 40s in Russell, Lincoln & Ellsworth counties & with this morning's temps not nearly as cold as they were Saturday morning, raised maxes at KGBD & KRSL about 3 degrees. Tonight's temperatures may be tricky as clear skies and a light SW wind that will shift toward the NW early Mon morning battle it out for dominant player. After a much warmer afternoon the warmer MAV solution is preferred for tonights lows with mid 30s assigned to all areas. On Monday, a weak cold front settles across most of KS Mon morning with the front arriving SE KS early in the afternoon. With the onset of NE 10-15 mph winds, it won't be quite as warm with highs from the mid 50s in Central KS and the lower 60s across the S & SE. An upper-deck trof is still scheduled to dig across the Southern Rockies Mon Night. This would induce surface cyclogenesis in the vicinity of SE CO, NE NM & the panhandles early Tue morning & set the stage for a challenging forecast Tue & Tue night. Tue & Tue Night: On Tue, the pattern continues to get more dynamic. Solutions have been very consistent in having the strong upper-deck shortwave undergoing rapid cyclogenesis which would obviously strengthen the surface low even further. This would induce a warm front to rapidly develop from around the OK/KS border to Central MO. The front's northward lift would play a major role in sharpening the SE-NW temperature gradient across KS. Highs across SE & extreme SC KS are still likely to reach 60-65 while in stark contrast Central KS would only reach 45-50. There will be sufficient moisture along the front to produce a light wintry mix in primarily Russell, Lincoln & Barton counties Tue morning while light rain develops as far south as Highway 400. The cyclone becomes EXTREMELY INTENSE as it sprints across the Mid-MS Valley Tue Night before reaching WI/ Lake Michigan early Wed morning. Fortunately, the cyclone is a quick-hitter & as such all precipitation should clear the KICT jurisdiction by early Tue evening. This would also allow a strong cold front to surge across KS Tue night that would combine with compact high pressure scooting down the Front Range to produce windy & much colder weather Tue night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 Wed-Fri: After a brief quiet period on Wed, the pattern again gets active. A STRONG mid/upper cyclone develops over the western U.S. that'll induce an intense surface cyclone to develop over WY & CO. The isentropic ascent strengthens considerably which would induce rain to develop across far south & southeast KS while light snow develops in central KS Wed eve. The rain occurring across southern KS should changeover to a light rain/light snow mixture then to all snow Thanksgiving Morning. The lower-deck flow becomes SELY by Thu afternoon which should transition the precipitation back to rain. The surface cyclone that would be centered over WY & CO on Wed begins to move E/NE on Fri. There's considerable disagreement between the GFS (much stronger) and the ECMWF on how the cyclone will evolve, but this much is certain: It appears that it'll be a wet end to the work-week, especially for SE KS where a few thunderstorms now appear possible. With three powerful systems impacting the Plains, compounded by disparities amongst various solutions, changes to the forecast are likely & may be significant so please stay tuned. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 63 36 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 65 34 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 60 36 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 61 36 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 63 37 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 63 34 54 29 / 0 0 0 10 Great Bend 64 34 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 62 34 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 62 34 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 63 37 62 41 / 0 0 0 10 Chanute 61 37 61 40 / 0 0 0 10 Iola 61 37 60 39 / 0 0 0 10 Parsons-KPPF 62 37 63 41 / 0 0 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...Ketcham