602 
FXUS63 KICT 232127
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
327 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019

Tonight:
Temperatures once again the main challenge, with increasing west 
boundary layer winds, clear skies and lingering snow over parts of
central KS. Hedged cooler once again in snow pack area of central
KS, although suspect effects may not be as widespread as last 
night. 

Sunday-Monday:
Good downslope flow and resultant warmup anticipated, although
shaved a couple degree off potential in central KS on Sunday, due
to residual snow and/or increased soil moisture. Weak boundary
moves through late Sunday night, with slight decrease in 
temperatures on Monday.

Tuesday-Tuesday night:
Models have trended stronger with this system relative to 24 hours
ago. Appears that a snow/wintry mix is possible in central KS with
some minor accumulations. Anticipated accumulations at this point
would not meet advisory criteria. Challenging temperature forecast
with a very sharp temperature gradient and a fair spread in model
positions throughout the day. Confidence is high that KRSL will be
in the cold sector and KCFV will be dry slotted in the afternoon.
Hedged temperatures accordingly. Initialization winds were
significantly increased both ahead and behind front given very 
tight surface pressure gradient. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019

A bit surprised that 1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF dampen the cut off low off
southwest US coast so much as it moves into the plains on 
Thursday. However both are in good agreement with progressive upper
low/trough dropping into and deepening over western US, setting 
up good diffluent flow across the plains. While widespread clouds
are likely, timing of moisture return and resultant overrunning 
is less so. Throw in discrepancies on various vorticity lobes 
rotating around low, confidence is low in any solution at this 
time. As suspected yesterday, continued to trend down high 
temperatures on Thanksgiving Day. If current model solutions 
verify, temperatures would be another 3-5 degree colder than 
forecast. Also increase winds during this period given anticipated
surface pressure gradient. Many adjustments to forecast are 
likely in the ensuing days. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019

Scattered MVFR ceiling around 1500-2000 ft AGL will impact
portions of eastern Kansas through about mid-afternoon, likely
dissipating thereafter as drier air moves in from the west. West
to northwest winds will also be a tad breezy through early evening
before subsiding. VFR conditions expected from mid-afternoon
through Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019

Strong winds in dry slot on Tuesday afternoon-evening, will lead 
to very high grassland fire danger. This is most likely for the
area roughly south of highway 400. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  64  31  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      28  63  32  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          29  61  31  57 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        30  62  34  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   29  65  35  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         25  60  32  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      27  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          28  60  29  57 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       28  61  30  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     29  63  36  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         30  62  34  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            29  61  34  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    29  62  35  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...PJH