602 FXUS63 KICT 232127 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 327 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 Tonight: Temperatures once again the main challenge, with increasing west boundary layer winds, clear skies and lingering snow over parts of central KS. Hedged cooler once again in snow pack area of central KS, although suspect effects may not be as widespread as last night. Sunday-Monday: Good downslope flow and resultant warmup anticipated, although shaved a couple degree off potential in central KS on Sunday, due to residual snow and/or increased soil moisture. Weak boundary moves through late Sunday night, with slight decrease in temperatures on Monday. Tuesday-Tuesday night: Models have trended stronger with this system relative to 24 hours ago. Appears that a snow/wintry mix is possible in central KS with some minor accumulations. Anticipated accumulations at this point would not meet advisory criteria. Challenging temperature forecast with a very sharp temperature gradient and a fair spread in model positions throughout the day. Confidence is high that KRSL will be in the cold sector and KCFV will be dry slotted in the afternoon. Hedged temperatures accordingly. Initialization winds were significantly increased both ahead and behind front given very tight surface pressure gradient. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 A bit surprised that 1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF dampen the cut off low off southwest US coast so much as it moves into the plains on Thursday. However both are in good agreement with progressive upper low/trough dropping into and deepening over western US, setting up good diffluent flow across the plains. While widespread clouds are likely, timing of moisture return and resultant overrunning is less so. Throw in discrepancies on various vorticity lobes rotating around low, confidence is low in any solution at this time. As suspected yesterday, continued to trend down high temperatures on Thanksgiving Day. If current model solutions verify, temperatures would be another 3-5 degree colder than forecast. Also increase winds during this period given anticipated surface pressure gradient. Many adjustments to forecast are likely in the ensuing days. -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 Scattered MVFR ceiling around 1500-2000 ft AGL will impact portions of eastern Kansas through about mid-afternoon, likely dissipating thereafter as drier air moves in from the west. West to northwest winds will also be a tad breezy through early evening before subsiding. VFR conditions expected from mid-afternoon through Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 Strong winds in dry slot on Tuesday afternoon-evening, will lead to very high grassland fire danger. This is most likely for the area roughly south of highway 400. -Howerton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 30 64 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 28 63 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 29 61 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 30 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 29 65 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 25 60 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 27 62 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 28 60 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 28 61 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 29 63 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 30 62 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 29 61 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 29 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...ADK FIRE WEATHER...PJH