358 
FXUS63 KMQT 221732
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1232 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2019

Upper trough axis stretching from Hudson Bay through Upper Michigan 
continues to exit to the east early this morning. RAP sfc analysis 
indicates that the sfc trough is already out over Quebec while high 
pressure has settled into the central Plains. NW flow remains breezy 
overnight but is expected to slacken through the morning. Thus far, 
LES has overperformed a little bit over north-central Upper Michigan 
as a small pocket of colder air with 850 mb temps of -10 to -12 
pushed through. Nighttime microphysics RGB showed some decent 
support from preconditioning over Lake Nipigon earlier, but dryer, 
marginally warmer air and lowering inversion heights have already 
cut off most of the snow out west. Radar trends show gradual 
weakening and increasing disorganization and by 12Z only isolated to 
scattered -shsn is expected, ending completely by late morning.  

The aforementioned sfc high will broaden across the Mississippi and 
Ohio Valleys through the day today, and low pressure pushing 
southeastward along the shore of Hudson Bay through northern Ontario 
later today into tonight will tighten the pressure gradient over 
Upper Michigan and Lake Superior. Sfc winds will turn to the SW 
through the day and increase once again, with the breeziest 
conditions expected out west and especially for the Keweenaw where 
some 20-30+ mph gusts seem a good bet this evening and tonight. 
Clouds are expected to clear out as well giving many locations their 
first taste of sunshine in several days, though it's possible the 
far east stays mostly cloudy until after sunset. Highs today will be 
in the low to mid 30s and lows will fall back into to 20s for most 
but despite a well mixed shallow boundary layer some interior 
western UP locations may dip into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2019

Upper air pattern will consist of a shortwave moving through the 
upper Great Lakes 12z Sat with another over the central plains. 
There is another shortwave over central northern Alberta 12z Sat 
that moves southeast to lake Winnipeg 00z Sun and into the upper 
Great Lakes 12z Sun. Another shortwave then drops into the area Sun 
night. No changes made to going forecast. 

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough across 
most of the U.S. 12z Mon with a shortwave across the northern 
plains. This shortwave moves slowly through the upper Great Lakes 
12z Tue with some energy hanging back in the western high plains. 
This energy gets kicked out into the upper Great lakes with a strong 
shortwave that develops a negative tilt to it 12z Wed that then 
heads to the Canadian Maritimes 12z Thu. Meanwhile, a deep 500 mb 
trough moves onto the west coast 12z Thu into 12z Fri while a 
shortwave ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes. Active pattern 
will continue for this forecast period with temperatures near normal 
and will see rain/snow mix for most of this period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2019

With high pressure to the south nudging into the area, skies have 
mostly cleared (or at least gone to a VFR cig) and conditions will 
stay VFR through the TAF period. Only concern is a period of LLWS 
tonight into tomorrow morning. WS will be marginal at CMX because 
sfc winds there are expected to be more westerly (thus less 
directional change with height) and a few kts stronger but included 
it nonetheless to err on the side of caution. Elsewhere, critical WS 
threshold should be met at about 1.5 kft AGL.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 245 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2019

Northwest gales to 35 knots over northcentral and eastern Lake 
Superior will continue to drop to 30 knots or less by sunrise as a 
deep low exits. Winds will diminish to around 25 knots midday before 
increasing to 35-40 knot wsw gales Friday night, this time over 
western to north-central portions of the lake. Winds will then relax 
below 25 knots Saturday evening through Monday, increasing to around 
25 knots as a low passes just north of the lake sometime later in 
the day or overnight. There is a chance for another low pressure 
system to develop and cross the Great Lakes from southwest to 
northeast Wednesday, but strength and track of the low remain 
uncertain. The best chance for winds exceeding 30 knots will come 
over the east half of the lake Wednesday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for 
     LSZ243-244-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KCW
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJC
MARINE...KCW