358 FXUS63 KMQT 221732 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1232 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 245 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2019 Upper trough axis stretching from Hudson Bay through Upper Michigan continues to exit to the east early this morning. RAP sfc analysis indicates that the sfc trough is already out over Quebec while high pressure has settled into the central Plains. NW flow remains breezy overnight but is expected to slacken through the morning. Thus far, LES has overperformed a little bit over north-central Upper Michigan as a small pocket of colder air with 850 mb temps of -10 to -12 pushed through. Nighttime microphysics RGB showed some decent support from preconditioning over Lake Nipigon earlier, but dryer, marginally warmer air and lowering inversion heights have already cut off most of the snow out west. Radar trends show gradual weakening and increasing disorganization and by 12Z only isolated to scattered -shsn is expected, ending completely by late morning. The aforementioned sfc high will broaden across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through the day today, and low pressure pushing southeastward along the shore of Hudson Bay through northern Ontario later today into tonight will tighten the pressure gradient over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior. Sfc winds will turn to the SW through the day and increase once again, with the breeziest conditions expected out west and especially for the Keweenaw where some 20-30+ mph gusts seem a good bet this evening and tonight. Clouds are expected to clear out as well giving many locations their first taste of sunshine in several days, though it's possible the far east stays mostly cloudy until after sunset. Highs today will be in the low to mid 30s and lows will fall back into to 20s for most but despite a well mixed shallow boundary layer some interior western UP locations may dip into the teens. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 223 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2019 Upper air pattern will consist of a shortwave moving through the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat with another over the central plains. There is another shortwave over central northern Alberta 12z Sat that moves southeast to lake Winnipeg 00z Sun and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. Another shortwave then drops into the area Sun night. No changes made to going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough across most of the U.S. 12z Mon with a shortwave across the northern plains. This shortwave moves slowly through the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue with some energy hanging back in the western high plains. This energy gets kicked out into the upper Great lakes with a strong shortwave that develops a negative tilt to it 12z Wed that then heads to the Canadian Maritimes 12z Thu. Meanwhile, a deep 500 mb trough moves onto the west coast 12z Thu into 12z Fri while a shortwave ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes. Active pattern will continue for this forecast period with temperatures near normal and will see rain/snow mix for most of this period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1231 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2019 With high pressure to the south nudging into the area, skies have mostly cleared (or at least gone to a VFR cig) and conditions will stay VFR through the TAF period. Only concern is a period of LLWS tonight into tomorrow morning. WS will be marginal at CMX because sfc winds there are expected to be more westerly (thus less directional change with height) and a few kts stronger but included it nonetheless to err on the side of caution. Elsewhere, critical WS threshold should be met at about 1.5 kft AGL. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 245 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2019 Northwest gales to 35 knots over northcentral and eastern Lake Superior will continue to drop to 30 knots or less by sunrise as a deep low exits. Winds will diminish to around 25 knots midday before increasing to 35-40 knot wsw gales Friday night, this time over western to north-central portions of the lake. Winds will then relax below 25 knots Saturday evening through Monday, increasing to around 25 knots as a low passes just north of the lake sometime later in the day or overnight. There is a chance for another low pressure system to develop and cross the Great Lakes from southwest to northeast Wednesday, but strength and track of the low remain uncertain. The best chance for winds exceeding 30 knots will come over the east half of the lake Wednesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243-244-263-264. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KCW LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...RJC MARINE...KCW