692 
FXUS61 KCLE 220903
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits our region to the east by daybreak this morning. 
Behind this front, a high pressure ridge affects our region through 
Saturday morning as the ridge slides east-southeastward from the 
Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region. A low then affects our
local area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as it moves
generally northeastward from the Tennessee Valley to just
offshore New Jersey and Long Island. Behind this low, high
pressure over the southeast states should extend a ridge over
our region Sunday afternoon into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aloft, a shortwave trough over and near the eastern Great Lakes 
region early this morning advances eastward to New England and 
vicinity by this evening. Behind this shortwave disturbance, a 
shortwave ridge will overspread our CWA from the west. At the 
surface, an eastward-moving cold front was just east of Ashtabula 
and Akron, and just west of Philadelphia, OH as of 3:15 this 
morning. This front should exit the rest of our CWA by daybreak. 
Behind this front, a high pressure ridge will build over our region 
from the Upper Midwest and allow for partial clearing of our skies, 
especially this afternoon. Today's high temperatures were already 
reached at or near midnight this morning. An overall decrease in 
temperatures is expected the rest of today due to cold air advection 
behind the cold front. Temperatures in the 40's early this morning 
are expected to be in the 30's by sunset this evening. 

Isolated to scattered rain showers are lingering over the eastern 
two-thirds of our forecast area early this morning. These showers 
reside along and ahead of the portion of the cold front extending 
from the surface to 850 mb. In addition, these showers are forecast 
to exit our area to the east by 8 AM EST this morning. Behind these 
showers, a west-northwesterly to northwesterly low-level flow of 
cold air across Lake Erie may trigger some lake effect drizzle over 
the snowbelt of far-northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania 
during the remainder of this morning. Any lake effect drizzle is
expected to end by this afternoon as a lowering and 
strengthening subsidence inversion accompanying the building 
high pressure ridge causes already limited lake-induced 
instablilty to wane. In addition, patchy freezing drizzle and a 
very thin glaze of ice accumulation are possible in interior 
portions of northwest PA late this morning, but this is 
contingent on surface temperatures cooling to at least 32F. Of 
note, a lack of ice nucleation in the lake effect cloud layer 
and the absence of a seeder-feeder process should prevent any 
lake effect snow flurries from occurring. Any additional 
rainfall today is expected to be a tenth of an inch or less.

Fair weather is expected for our entire region tonight and Saturday 
morning as the shortwave ridge advances eastward over the local 
area. At the surface, high pressure will slide east-southeastward 
over Ohio and reach the Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Saturday. 
Partly cloudy skies this evening become mostly cloudy Saturday 
morning as isentropic lift amidst sufficient moisture aloft occurs 
ahead of the next shortwave trough approaching from the Central 
Great Plains. Low temperatures should reach the lower 20's to lower 
30's during the predawn hours of Saturday morning, with the coldest 
readings inland from Lake Erie. In addition, some patchy fog may 
develop via nocturnal cooling late this evening into early Saturday 
morning. Any fog should disappear via daytime heating shortly after 
daybreak on Saturday. 

By Saturday afternoon, the aforementioned shortwave trough is 
forecast to be over the mid-Mississippi Valley. This disturbance 
should move east to the mid-Ohio Valley, western Ohio, and vicinity 
by nightfall Saturday evening, when the embedded mid- to upper-
level low should be centered over southwest Ohio. 
Simultaneously, the attendant surface low should move northeast 
from the Tennessee Valley to northern West Virginia. As 
isentropic lift persists ahead of the shortwave trough, skies 
should become cloudy Saturday afternoon as rain showers 
overspread our CWA from southwest to northeast. Saturday 
afternoon highs should reach the low to mid 40's. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will be moving overhead Saturday night as the surface 
low across the Upper Ohio Valley begins to transfer to the east 
coast. Precipitation will change over so wet snow showers Saturday 
evening as colder air aloft wraps in with the upper low. Lows will 
end up in the lower 30s. Sunday an upper shortwave crosses with 
surface high pressure centered to our south. This will keep us dry, 
but did linger a slight chance for the snowbelt. A dry forecast 
continues into Monday, but cloud cover increases as we are on the 
fringes of a warm front from low pressure across the Upper Midwest. 
Temperatures warm some each day with highs Monday flirting with
50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A decent amount of spread in solutions as we head into midweek with 
a transitioning pattern from zonal to a deepening trough across the 
west coast. One primary shortwave will eject from the northern 
Rockies and cross the Great Lakes Wednesday. Ensemble means of both 
the GFS and ECMWF place the surface low track to our northwest 
Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Using this as general guidance, have 
temperatures that warm into the lower 50s Tuesday and lows Tuesday 
night that are several degrees warmer than guidance under the 
expectation of southerly winds. Wednesday should feature steady 
temperatures. As far as precipitation goes, have maintained a blend 
which recognizes the possibility for a few showers Tuesday and the 
better chances Tuesday night lingering into Wednesday. As of right 
now, Thursday generally appears to be fair with slightly below 
normal temperatures, but with as active as this pattern is, will 
have to watch timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
As of 0540Z/Fri, a surface cold front extended southwestward 
from just east of CYXU in southern Ontario to just west of KCLE and 
KDAY. This front continues moving eastward and should exit the 
region by 11Z/Fri. Breezy southwesterly surface winds ahead of the 
front shift to westerly or northwesterly behind the front. These 
winds will tend to ease after 21Z/Fri. Behind this front, high 
pressure builds into our area from the Upper Midwest through the end 
of the TAF period. 

Isolated to scattered rain showers both ahead of and behind 
the cold front should gradually clear the region from west to 
east through 14Z/Fri. However, isolated lake effect showers may
persist behind the front at/near KERI through about 18Z/Fri. 
Occasional MVFR visibility is possible in steadier rainfall. 
Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings should give way to scattered low
clouds from west to east Friday afternoon through early 
Saturday morning. However, these ceilings may persist over areas
east of KCAK through the TAF period. This includes KYNG and 
KERI. 

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with widespread rain and/or snow on
Saturday, lingering into Sunday across NE Ohio and NW 
Pennsylvania. Non-VFR possible once again Tuesday afternoon and 
evening with widespread rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Low end Gales, or at least frequent gusts of Gale force, ongoing 
early this morning across the east end of the lake. Will keep the 
Gale Warning going until 12Z. A Small Craft Advisory remains for the 
rest of the lake although did make some adjustments based on the 
latest forecast.  Have dropped the far western segment a little 
early and stepped down the lake from west to east through 10Pm 
tonight away. Overall winds will diminish fairly quickly and high 
pressure passes across Ohio tonight. Low water on the western basin 
will close. Without the longevity of the Gales, we should stay above 
the critical mark. Saturday's winds still remain changeable as low 
pressure moves to the Upper Ohio Valley and then gets drawn to the 
east coast. Light south-southwest flow follows for Monday. Those 
winds increase for Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for 
     LEZ146>149.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ169.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for 
     LEZ143>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Oudeman

795 
FXUS61 KCLE 220919
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits our region to the east by daybreak this morning. 
Behind this front, a high pressure ridge affects our region through 
Saturday morning as the ridge slides east-southeastward from the 
Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region. A low then affects our
local area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as it moves
generally northeastward from the Tennessee Valley to just
offshore New Jersey and Long Island. Behind this low, high
pressure over the southeast states should extend a ridge over
our region Sunday afternoon into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aloft, a shortwave trough over and near the eastern Great Lakes 
region early this morning advances eastward to New England and 
vicinity by this evening. Behind this shortwave disturbance, a 
shortwave ridge will overspread our CWA from the west. At the 
surface, an eastward-moving cold front was just east of Ashtabula 
and Akron, and just west of New Philadelphia, OH as of 3:15 this 
morning. This front should exit the rest of our CWA by daybreak. 
Behind this front, a high pressure ridge will build over our region 
from the Upper Midwest and allow for partial clearing of our skies, 
especially this afternoon. Today's high temperatures were already 
reached at or near midnight this morning. An overall decrease in 
temperatures is expected the rest of today due to cold air advection 
behind the cold front. Temperatures in the 40's early this morning 
are expected to be in the 30's by sunset this evening. 

Isolated to scattered rain showers are lingering over the eastern 
two-thirds of our forecast area early this morning. These showers 
reside along and ahead of the portion of the cold front extending 
from the surface to 850 mb. In addition, these showers are forecast 
to exit our area to the east by 8 AM EST this morning. Behind these 
showers, a west-northwesterly to northwesterly low-level flow of 
cold air across Lake Erie may trigger some lake effect drizzle over 
the snowbelt of far-northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania 
during the remainder of this morning. Any lake effect drizzle is
expected to end by this afternoon as a lowering and 
strengthening subsidence inversion accompanying the building 
high pressure ridge causes already limited lake-induced 
instablilty to wane. In addition, patchy freezing drizzle and a 
very thin glaze of ice accumulation are possible in interior 
portions of northwest PA late this morning, but this is 
contingent on surface temperatures cooling to at least 32F. Of 
note, a lack of ice nucleation in the lake effect cloud layer 
and the absence of a seeder-feeder process should prevent any 
lake effect snow flurries from occurring. Any additional 
rainfall today is expected to be a tenth of an inch or less.

Fair weather is expected for our entire region tonight and Saturday 
morning as the shortwave ridge advances eastward over the local 
area. At the surface, high pressure will slide east-southeastward 
over Ohio and reach the Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Saturday. 
Partly cloudy skies this evening become mostly cloudy Saturday 
morning as isentropic lift amidst sufficient moisture aloft occurs 
ahead of the next shortwave trough approaching from the Central 
Great Plains. Low temperatures should reach the lower 20's to lower 
30's during the predawn hours of Saturday morning, with the coldest 
readings inland from Lake Erie. In addition, some patchy fog may 
develop via nocturnal cooling late this evening into early Saturday 
morning. Any fog should disappear via daytime heating shortly after 
daybreak on Saturday. 

By Saturday afternoon, the aforementioned shortwave trough is 
forecast to be over the mid-Mississippi Valley. This disturbance 
should move east to the mid-Ohio Valley, western Ohio, and vicinity 
by nightfall Saturday evening, when the embedded mid- to upper-
level low should be centered over southwest Ohio. 
Simultaneously, the attendant surface low should move northeast 
from the Tennessee Valley to northern West Virginia. As 
isentropic lift persists ahead of the shortwave trough, skies 
should become cloudy Saturday afternoon as rain showers 
overspread our CWA from southwest to northeast. Saturday 
afternoon highs should reach the low to mid 40's. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will be moving overhead Saturday night as the surface 
low across the Upper Ohio Valley begins to transfer to the east 
coast. Precipitation will change over so wet snow showers Saturday 
evening as colder air aloft wraps in with the upper low. Lows will 
end up in the lower 30s. Sunday an upper shortwave crosses with 
surface high pressure centered to our south. This will keep us dry, 
but did linger a slight chance for the snowbelt. A dry forecast 
continues into Monday, but cloud cover increases as we are on the 
fringes of a warm front from low pressure across the Upper Midwest. 
Temperatures warm some each day with highs Monday flirting with
50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A decent amount of spread in solutions as we head into midweek with 
a transitioning pattern from zonal to a deepening trough across the 
west coast. One primary shortwave will eject from the northern 
Rockies and cross the Great Lakes Wednesday. Ensemble means of both 
the GFS and ECMWF place the surface low track to our northwest 
Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Using this as general guidance, have 
temperatures that warm into the lower 50s Tuesday and lows Tuesday 
night that are several degrees warmer than guidance under the 
expectation of southerly winds. Wednesday should feature steady 
temperatures. As far as precipitation goes, have maintained a blend 
which recognizes the possibility for a few showers Tuesday and the 
better chances Tuesday night lingering into Wednesday. As of right 
now, Thursday generally appears to be fair with slightly below 
normal temperatures, but with as active as this pattern is, will 
have to watch timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
As of 0540Z/Fri, a surface cold front extended southwestward 
from just east of CYXU in southern Ontario to just west of KCLE and 
KDAY. This front continues moving eastward and should exit the 
region by 11Z/Fri. Breezy southwesterly surface winds ahead of the 
front shift to westerly or northwesterly behind the front. These 
winds will tend to ease after 21Z/Fri. Behind this front, high 
pressure builds into our area from the Upper Midwest through the end 
of the TAF period. 

Isolated to scattered rain showers both ahead of and behind 
the cold front should gradually clear the region from west to 
east through 14Z/Fri. However, isolated lake effect showers may
persist behind the front at/near KERI through about 18Z/Fri. 
Occasional MVFR visibility is possible in steadier rainfall. 
Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings should give way to scattered low
clouds from west to east Friday afternoon through early 
Saturday morning. However, these ceilings may persist over areas
east of KCAK through the TAF period. This includes KYNG and 
KERI. 

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with widespread rain and/or snow on
Saturday, lingering into Sunday across NE Ohio and NW 
Pennsylvania. Non-VFR possible once again Tuesday afternoon and 
evening with widespread rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Low end Gales, or at least frequent gusts of Gale force, ongoing 
early this morning across the east end of the lake. Will keep the 
Gale Warning going until 12Z. A Small Craft Advisory remains for the 
rest of the lake although did make some adjustments based on the 
latest forecast.  Have dropped the far western segment a little 
early and stepped down the lake from west to east through 10Pm 
tonight away. Overall winds will diminish fairly quickly and high 
pressure passes across Ohio tonight. Low water on the western basin 
will close. Without the longevity of the Gales, we should stay above 
the critical mark. Saturday's winds still remain changeable as low 
pressure moves to the Upper Ohio Valley and then gets drawn to the 
east coast. Light south-southwest flow follows for Monday. Those 
winds increase for Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for 
     LEZ146>149.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ169.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for 
     LEZ143>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Oudeman