692 FXUS61 KCLE 220903 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 403 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits our region to the east by daybreak this morning. Behind this front, a high pressure ridge affects our region through Saturday morning as the ridge slides east-southeastward from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region. A low then affects our local area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as it moves generally northeastward from the Tennessee Valley to just offshore New Jersey and Long Island. Behind this low, high pressure over the southeast states should extend a ridge over our region Sunday afternoon into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aloft, a shortwave trough over and near the eastern Great Lakes region early this morning advances eastward to New England and vicinity by this evening. Behind this shortwave disturbance, a shortwave ridge will overspread our CWA from the west. At the surface, an eastward-moving cold front was just east of Ashtabula and Akron, and just west of Philadelphia, OH as of 3:15 this morning. This front should exit the rest of our CWA by daybreak. Behind this front, a high pressure ridge will build over our region from the Upper Midwest and allow for partial clearing of our skies, especially this afternoon. Today's high temperatures were already reached at or near midnight this morning. An overall decrease in temperatures is expected the rest of today due to cold air advection behind the cold front. Temperatures in the 40's early this morning are expected to be in the 30's by sunset this evening. Isolated to scattered rain showers are lingering over the eastern two-thirds of our forecast area early this morning. These showers reside along and ahead of the portion of the cold front extending from the surface to 850 mb. In addition, these showers are forecast to exit our area to the east by 8 AM EST this morning. Behind these showers, a west-northwesterly to northwesterly low-level flow of cold air across Lake Erie may trigger some lake effect drizzle over the snowbelt of far-northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania during the remainder of this morning. Any lake effect drizzle is expected to end by this afternoon as a lowering and strengthening subsidence inversion accompanying the building high pressure ridge causes already limited lake-induced instablilty to wane. In addition, patchy freezing drizzle and a very thin glaze of ice accumulation are possible in interior portions of northwest PA late this morning, but this is contingent on surface temperatures cooling to at least 32F. Of note, a lack of ice nucleation in the lake effect cloud layer and the absence of a seeder-feeder process should prevent any lake effect snow flurries from occurring. Any additional rainfall today is expected to be a tenth of an inch or less. Fair weather is expected for our entire region tonight and Saturday morning as the shortwave ridge advances eastward over the local area. At the surface, high pressure will slide east-southeastward over Ohio and reach the Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Saturday. Partly cloudy skies this evening become mostly cloudy Saturday morning as isentropic lift amidst sufficient moisture aloft occurs ahead of the next shortwave trough approaching from the Central Great Plains. Low temperatures should reach the lower 20's to lower 30's during the predawn hours of Saturday morning, with the coldest readings inland from Lake Erie. In addition, some patchy fog may develop via nocturnal cooling late this evening into early Saturday morning. Any fog should disappear via daytime heating shortly after daybreak on Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, the aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to be over the mid-Mississippi Valley. This disturbance should move east to the mid-Ohio Valley, western Ohio, and vicinity by nightfall Saturday evening, when the embedded mid- to upper- level low should be centered over southwest Ohio. Simultaneously, the attendant surface low should move northeast from the Tennessee Valley to northern West Virginia. As isentropic lift persists ahead of the shortwave trough, skies should become cloudy Saturday afternoon as rain showers overspread our CWA from southwest to northeast. Saturday afternoon highs should reach the low to mid 40's. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The upper low will be moving overhead Saturday night as the surface low across the Upper Ohio Valley begins to transfer to the east coast. Precipitation will change over so wet snow showers Saturday evening as colder air aloft wraps in with the upper low. Lows will end up in the lower 30s. Sunday an upper shortwave crosses with surface high pressure centered to our south. This will keep us dry, but did linger a slight chance for the snowbelt. A dry forecast continues into Monday, but cloud cover increases as we are on the fringes of a warm front from low pressure across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures warm some each day with highs Monday flirting with 50. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A decent amount of spread in solutions as we head into midweek with a transitioning pattern from zonal to a deepening trough across the west coast. One primary shortwave will eject from the northern Rockies and cross the Great Lakes Wednesday. Ensemble means of both the GFS and ECMWF place the surface low track to our northwest Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Using this as general guidance, have temperatures that warm into the lower 50s Tuesday and lows Tuesday night that are several degrees warmer than guidance under the expectation of southerly winds. Wednesday should feature steady temperatures. As far as precipitation goes, have maintained a blend which recognizes the possibility for a few showers Tuesday and the better chances Tuesday night lingering into Wednesday. As of right now, Thursday generally appears to be fair with slightly below normal temperatures, but with as active as this pattern is, will have to watch timing. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... As of 0540Z/Fri, a surface cold front extended southwestward from just east of CYXU in southern Ontario to just west of KCLE and KDAY. This front continues moving eastward and should exit the region by 11Z/Fri. Breezy southwesterly surface winds ahead of the front shift to westerly or northwesterly behind the front. These winds will tend to ease after 21Z/Fri. Behind this front, high pressure builds into our area from the Upper Midwest through the end of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered rain showers both ahead of and behind the cold front should gradually clear the region from west to east through 14Z/Fri. However, isolated lake effect showers may persist behind the front at/near KERI through about 18Z/Fri. Occasional MVFR visibility is possible in steadier rainfall. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings should give way to scattered low clouds from west to east Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. However, these ceilings may persist over areas east of KCAK through the TAF period. This includes KYNG and KERI. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with widespread rain and/or snow on Saturday, lingering into Sunday across NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania. Non-VFR possible once again Tuesday afternoon and evening with widespread rain. && .MARINE... Low end Gales, or at least frequent gusts of Gale force, ongoing early this morning across the east end of the lake. Will keep the Gale Warning going until 12Z. A Small Craft Advisory remains for the rest of the lake although did make some adjustments based on the latest forecast. Have dropped the far western segment a little early and stepped down the lake from west to east through 10Pm tonight away. Overall winds will diminish fairly quickly and high pressure passes across Ohio tonight. Low water on the western basin will close. Without the longevity of the Gales, we should stay above the critical mark. Saturday's winds still remain changeable as low pressure moves to the Upper Ohio Valley and then gets drawn to the east coast. Light south-southwest flow follows for Monday. Those winds increase for Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LEZ146>149. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ169. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ143>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jaszka NEAR TERM...Jaszka SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Oudeman