631 
FXUS63 KOAX 122326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
526 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

At 3 PM, the center of the Arctic High that brought record cold
temperatures (Norfolk & Lincoln) to the region this morning had 
shifted southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Despite this, and 
the return of breezy southerly winds on the back side of the high,
temperatures remained mostly subfreezing over the region this 
afternoon. Some places in Iowa were still in the upper teens,
Yuck! Winds were strongest in northeast Nebraska, where peak 
reported gusts were in the upper 30s.

Unlike last night, temperatures shouldn't fall much tonight, due 
to increasing cloud cover and persistent southerly winds. A few 
locations over central and southeast Nebraska may even see 
temperatures start to rise during the early morning hours. 
Overnight lows should mostly be in the low 20s, though the Loess 
Hills will likely be in the teens.

The next shortwave trough and associated surface front will 
arrive in the region Wednesday, bringing more cloud cover and the 
potential for mixed precipitation. Though overall precipitation 
amounts look light, a 0.10 of an inch or less, there is a 
potential for a light glaze of ice in northeast Nebraska Wednesday
morning. This could lead to slick roads for the morning commute. 
Some consideration was given to the issuance of a Winter Weather 
Advisory along NE/SD border from roughly 3 AM to Noon (for 
icing), but confidence in the timing, location and precipitation 
type was to low to issue an Advisory. Will pass the concern along 
to the evening shift for reevaluation. The going forecast favors 
dry conditions in the Lincoln and Omaha Metros through the morning
commute. A few showers are possible in both cities by mid 
morning, with mostly rain in Lincoln and mixed precipitation 
possible in Omaha. Rising temperatures through the day should 
limit any potential impacts in Omaha and Lincoln. 

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Thursday then 
shift east, allowing southerly follow to return Friday and 
Saturday. Meanwhile the upper levels will be dominated by weak 
ridging to near zonal flow. Combine these things and we have a
good setup for fair weather and warming temperatures. Afternoon
highs should push back into the 50s for most Friday and Saturday.

A weak front and upper level trough are expected to arrive
Saturday night, bringing a small chance for very light showers. 
Though it should be said the the trend over the last 24-48 hours 
has been for a drier forecast. Because this front appears to be 
lacking a "punch", temperatures shouldn't take much of a hit. 
Highs should still be near 50 Sunday, and may even approach 60 on 
Monday. What a difference a week makes ehhh.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Gusty south winds 15 to 20kt are forecast much of the night, with
low level wind shear likely at all sites as a southwest low level
jet increases to 50kt near FL020. A cold front moving into
northeast Nebraska around 12Z will bring a chance for rain or snow
to KOFK much of the day, and KOMA from late morning through the
afternoon. There is a small chance for light freezing rain and a
potential for light icing, especially for a few hours after onset
of precipitation.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Albright
AVIATION...Dergan