631 FXUS63 KOAX 122326 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 526 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019 At 3 PM, the center of the Arctic High that brought record cold temperatures (Norfolk & Lincoln) to the region this morning had shifted southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Despite this, and the return of breezy southerly winds on the back side of the high, temperatures remained mostly subfreezing over the region this afternoon. Some places in Iowa were still in the upper teens, Yuck! Winds were strongest in northeast Nebraska, where peak reported gusts were in the upper 30s. Unlike last night, temperatures shouldn't fall much tonight, due to increasing cloud cover and persistent southerly winds. A few locations over central and southeast Nebraska may even see temperatures start to rise during the early morning hours. Overnight lows should mostly be in the low 20s, though the Loess Hills will likely be in the teens. The next shortwave trough and associated surface front will arrive in the region Wednesday, bringing more cloud cover and the potential for mixed precipitation. Though overall precipitation amounts look light, a 0.10 of an inch or less, there is a potential for a light glaze of ice in northeast Nebraska Wednesday morning. This could lead to slick roads for the morning commute. Some consideration was given to the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory along NE/SD border from roughly 3 AM to Noon (for icing), but confidence in the timing, location and precipitation type was to low to issue an Advisory. Will pass the concern along to the evening shift for reevaluation. The going forecast favors dry conditions in the Lincoln and Omaha Metros through the morning commute. A few showers are possible in both cities by mid morning, with mostly rain in Lincoln and mixed precipitation possible in Omaha. Rising temperatures through the day should limit any potential impacts in Omaha and Lincoln. Surface high pressure will settle over the region Thursday then shift east, allowing southerly follow to return Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile the upper levels will be dominated by weak ridging to near zonal flow. Combine these things and we have a good setup for fair weather and warming temperatures. Afternoon highs should push back into the 50s for most Friday and Saturday. A weak front and upper level trough are expected to arrive Saturday night, bringing a small chance for very light showers. Though it should be said the the trend over the last 24-48 hours has been for a drier forecast. Because this front appears to be lacking a "punch", temperatures shouldn't take much of a hit. Highs should still be near 50 Sunday, and may even approach 60 on Monday. What a difference a week makes ehhh. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019 Gusty south winds 15 to 20kt are forecast much of the night, with low level wind shear likely at all sites as a southwest low level jet increases to 50kt near FL020. A cold front moving into northeast Nebraska around 12Z will bring a chance for rain or snow to KOFK much of the day, and KOMA from late morning through the afternoon. There is a small chance for light freezing rain and a potential for light icing, especially for a few hours after onset of precipitation. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Albright AVIATION...Dergan