448 
FXUS64 KBMX 082014
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
214 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0157 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2019/

It's been a tad on the cool side today with temperatures only
climbing into the 40s/50s with a northerly breeze as surface
ridging builds in from the north. High clouds have persisted thus
far across the area, but we do expect a gradual north to south 
clearing this evening and overnight. This will allow temperatures
to fall into the 20s north and 30s elsewhere by daybreak Saturday.
A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight for roughly the 
northwestern two-thirds of the forecast area.

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast. There
were some slight adjustments to highs/lows and an increase in 
Pops with the Mon/Tue system. A widespread freeze still looks
likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

19

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0355 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2019/

Saturday and Sunday.

Cold temperatures are still appearing likely Saturday morning with 
upper 20s to upper 30s across Central Alabama. Temperatures at or 
below freezing are forecast for the northwestern two-thirds of the 
area. The Freeze Warning mentioned in the short-term discussion 
remains in effect until 8 AM Saturday as a result. Abundant sunshine 
will quickly warm the area with 50s/60s by the afternoon. 
Northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place through early Sunday 
with highs in the 60s, though high pressure will gradually weaken. 
Regardless, rain-free and stable weather will remain in place amidst 
the dry continental airmass. Patchy frost is possible in areas 
across the north Saturday night, but confidence of temperatures at 
or below freezing is dwindling. Will keep a low confidence mention 
in the HWO as it cannot be ruled out in isolated locations, 
particularly sheltered areas vulnerable to cold air drainage.

Monday through Thursday.

Eastern CONUS troughing & negative height anomalies still appear 
likely into next week, with an upper-level pattern configured in a 
lingering Rex Block. Meanwhile, another shot of cold air still 
appears to impact much of the country as the next upper-level trough 
pivots across the Plains Monday morning, eventually amplifying & 
ejecting into the Midwest by Tuesday morning. As this advances 
southeastward, a polar airmass & associated cold front is progged to 
move into our area with a noticeable reduction in temperatures and 
dewpoints beginning Monday night/Tuesday morning across the 
northwest. Varying solutions still exist with regards to rainfall 
associated with frontal passage and over-running moisture fed by the 
sub-tropical jet. Because of the upper-level pattern, confluent flow 
aloft may negate lift from a strengthening jet streak positioning to 
our north. Prior solutions have suggested the ULL to our southwest 
weakens and phases with this trough and resultantly fostered surface 
cyclogenesis & more rainfall along the front. This is now appearing 
less likely with the ULL lagging behind, and an overall drier column 
as the front moves through. Thus, rain amounts certainly appear to 
remain <.25" before the cold advection regime becomes the more 
impactful weather headline. PoPs have been truncated to ~50% due to 
confidence issues this far out. (Forecast PoPs have trended higher, 
but forecast rain amounts have lessened.) A wintry mix can't be 
ruled out Tuesday morning in the northwest. Forecast soundings would 
suggest light sleet and maybe some flurries possible. However, it
will be difficult to get frozen precip with this scenario as the 
dry, sub-freezing air lags behind the exiting precipitation.
Thus, wintry precip was not included in the forecast.

Thereafter, a widespread & significant freeze is possible across all 
of Central Alabama overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning with 
temperatures approaching record lows. Widespread 20s are possible 
with areas in the northwest in the upper 10s. This will continue to 
be mentioned as a high confidence freeze in the HWO, though
overnight winds will likely hinder frost development. Highs 
should rebound into the 40s/50s for Wed & Thu afternoons.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Northerly winds continue to gust up to 15-18 kt at a few
terminals, but those gusts should gradually decrease through the
afternoon. The cirrus deck is still hanging on across much of the
area, but expect skies to clear from north to south this evening
and tonight. VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free weather will continue through the weekend with minimum 
RH values generally 35% or higher in the afternoons, though winds
should lessen. Another chance for rain is forecast by early next 
week with a colder than average pattern to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     28  58  35  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Anniston    32  59  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Birmingham  31  59  39  66  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  30  59  38  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Calera      32  60  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Auburn      36  59  38  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Montgomery  36  63  39  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Troy        39  62  38  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday for 
the following counties: Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...
Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...
Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Marengo...Marion...Perry...Pickens...
Randolph...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$