448 FXUS64 KBMX 082014 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 214 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0157 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2019/ It's been a tad on the cool side today with temperatures only climbing into the 40s/50s with a northerly breeze as surface ridging builds in from the north. High clouds have persisted thus far across the area, but we do expect a gradual north to south clearing this evening and overnight. This will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s north and 30s elsewhere by daybreak Saturday. A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight for roughly the northwestern two-thirds of the forecast area. No significant changes were made to the long term forecast. There were some slight adjustments to highs/lows and an increase in Pops with the Mon/Tue system. A widespread freeze still looks likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 19 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0355 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2019/ Saturday and Sunday. Cold temperatures are still appearing likely Saturday morning with upper 20s to upper 30s across Central Alabama. Temperatures at or below freezing are forecast for the northwestern two-thirds of the area. The Freeze Warning mentioned in the short-term discussion remains in effect until 8 AM Saturday as a result. Abundant sunshine will quickly warm the area with 50s/60s by the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place through early Sunday with highs in the 60s, though high pressure will gradually weaken. Regardless, rain-free and stable weather will remain in place amidst the dry continental airmass. Patchy frost is possible in areas across the north Saturday night, but confidence of temperatures at or below freezing is dwindling. Will keep a low confidence mention in the HWO as it cannot be ruled out in isolated locations, particularly sheltered areas vulnerable to cold air drainage. Monday through Thursday. Eastern CONUS troughing & negative height anomalies still appear likely into next week, with an upper-level pattern configured in a lingering Rex Block. Meanwhile, another shot of cold air still appears to impact much of the country as the next upper-level trough pivots across the Plains Monday morning, eventually amplifying & ejecting into the Midwest by Tuesday morning. As this advances southeastward, a polar airmass & associated cold front is progged to move into our area with a noticeable reduction in temperatures and dewpoints beginning Monday night/Tuesday morning across the northwest. Varying solutions still exist with regards to rainfall associated with frontal passage and over-running moisture fed by the sub-tropical jet. Because of the upper-level pattern, confluent flow aloft may negate lift from a strengthening jet streak positioning to our north. Prior solutions have suggested the ULL to our southwest weakens and phases with this trough and resultantly fostered surface cyclogenesis & more rainfall along the front. This is now appearing less likely with the ULL lagging behind, and an overall drier column as the front moves through. Thus, rain amounts certainly appear to remain <.25" before the cold advection regime becomes the more impactful weather headline. PoPs have been truncated to ~50% due to confidence issues this far out. (Forecast PoPs have trended higher, but forecast rain amounts have lessened.) A wintry mix can't be ruled out Tuesday morning in the northwest. Forecast soundings would suggest light sleet and maybe some flurries possible. However, it will be difficult to get frozen precip with this scenario as the dry, sub-freezing air lags behind the exiting precipitation. Thus, wintry precip was not included in the forecast. Thereafter, a widespread & significant freeze is possible across all of Central Alabama overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning with temperatures approaching record lows. Widespread 20s are possible with areas in the northwest in the upper 10s. This will continue to be mentioned as a high confidence freeze in the HWO, though overnight winds will likely hinder frost development. Highs should rebound into the 40s/50s for Wed & Thu afternoons. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Northerly winds continue to gust up to 15-18 kt at a few terminals, but those gusts should gradually decrease through the afternoon. The cirrus deck is still hanging on across much of the area, but expect skies to clear from north to south this evening and tonight. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. 19 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain-free weather will continue through the weekend with minimum RH values generally 35% or higher in the afternoons, though winds should lessen. Another chance for rain is forecast by early next week with a colder than average pattern to continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 28 58 35 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Anniston 32 59 37 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 31 59 39 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 30 59 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Calera 32 60 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Auburn 36 59 38 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 36 63 39 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 39 62 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday for the following counties: Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee... Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...Etowah...Fayette...Greene... Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Marengo...Marion...Perry...Pickens... Randolph...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega... Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston. && $$