247 
FXUS64 KSJT 071738
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1138 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ 
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low clouds 
affecting flight conditions areawide today and tonight. Currently 
have areas of light to occasionally moderate showers moving east 
across the region with MVFR/IFR cigs at area terminals. Periods of
light rain will be possible through the TAF period but no thunder
is expected. Gusty north winds continue with sustained speeds 
around 15- 20kt but should diminish later this afternoon/evening 
as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across the area. 
Otherwise, IFR cigs will remain in place through Friday morning 
with perhaps only a slight improvement to MVFR at SJT and ABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ 

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

A strong cold front is moving through the area this morning, and
has already moved through the KABI terminal. Winds will turn to
the north at 15 to 20 knots, with gusts between 25 to 30 knots at
all sites by late morning. Ceilings will also lower to IFR at all
sites by late morning or early afternoon, and remain there into
tonight. With a very humid air mass behind the cold front, patchy
fog and or some drizzle may also affect area sites. For now will 
just include BR with a reduction in VIS to 4SM or 5SM through most
of the day. Scattered showers may also affect all sites 
intermittently today, so have also kept the VCSH in the TAFs for 
today. Expect most of the precipitation to move out of the area 
overnight tonight, with potentially slowly improving conditions. 
20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Showers and thunderstorms have been affecting the CWA over the
last several hours, although no severe weather has occurred. A few
locations have received more than an inch of rainfall, but most
areas have received between one quarter of an inch to an inch of
rain. Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing across
the northern Permian Basin that are moving east into the Big
Country. A strong cold front is also moving quickly south. 
Temperature drops of 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit within 10 to 15 
minutes are taking place behind the front. The front had made it
pretty much to the I-20 corridor as of 430 AM this morning, and 
will likely be through the San Angelo area by 7 AM. Temperatures 
behind the front are in the low to mid 40s in our area but could 
drop into the 30s for several hours along/north of I-20 today. 
Needless to say, temperatures will hold steady or fall throughout 
the day behind the front. Folks along the I-10 corridor will wake 
up to temperatures in the 60s, but will see them fall into the by 
early afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 30s area-wide. Have 
kept freezing temperatures north of I-20 for now as cloud cover 
may help to offset cooling behind the front. 

High resolution models continue to show scattered to numerous
showers with the potential for a few thunderstorms behind the
front today. Have kept the highest chances in our eastern 
counties and Big Country areas where precipitation is either 
occurring, or moving in. Still retaining "Likely" chances for the
Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, but the potential for
significant rainfall is much better to the east and north of 
those areas. Will not introduce any wintry mix into the 
precipitation for today, but a little sleet could mix in with the 
rain at times, mainly along and north of I-20. Tonight, the GFS 
and ECMWF, generally push the precipitation south of us, but a few
showers will still be possible for the southern half of the area 
tonight. 

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

It will be cool on Friday in the wake of today's front, with 
overcast skies keeping afternoon highs only in the 40s and 50s. 
Have kept a slight chance of PoPs in the morning across the 
northern Edwards Plateau where a few showers could be lingering. A
warming trend will commence on Saturday as low level flow once 
again becomes southerly. Temperatures will rebound into the 60s 
and 70s on Saturday and Sunday, with overnight lows in the 40s.

Our attention then turns to the next strong cold front which will
sweep across West Central Texas Sunday night/Monday morning. The 
GFS is about 6 hours faster than the ECMWF with the FROPA, pushing
the front through the entire CWA by Monday afternoon. Gusty north
winds will accompany the front. Temperatures will quickly fall 
through the day on Monday, with below freezing temperatures 
expected Monday night. Rain chances will increase as well as the 
front moves through. The interesting part of the forecast comes 
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lingering shortwave energy 
emanating from a near stationary upper level low over Baja 
California could lead to some additional precipitation developing 
across southern portions of the forecast area during this time. 
With temperatures falling below freezing this would raise the 
possibility of some sort of wintry mix occurring. Forecaster 
confidence this far out is low, as the airmass building in behind 
the arctic front on Monday will be very dry. But will go ahead and
introduce a chance of a rain/snow mix across the western Concho 
Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. Stay tuned. Otherwise, it 
will be cold on Tuesday with highs only in the 40s and freezing 
temperatures again Tuesday night. Temperatures will rebound into 
the 50s for Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 42  35  52  39 /  90  20   0   0 
San Angelo 	 57  35  54  38 /  60  30   5   0 
Junction 	 64  37  55  38 /  80  50  20   5 
Brownwood 	 61  35  52  35 / 100  20   5   0 
Sweetwater 	 39  35  51  40 /  90  20   0   0 
Ozona      	 63  36  55  39 /  60  40  20   5 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$