247 FXUS64 KSJT 071738 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1138 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low clouds affecting flight conditions areawide today and tonight. Currently have areas of light to occasionally moderate showers moving east across the region with MVFR/IFR cigs at area terminals. Periods of light rain will be possible through the TAF period but no thunder is expected. Gusty north winds continue with sustained speeds around 15- 20kt but should diminish later this afternoon/evening as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Otherwise, IFR cigs will remain in place through Friday morning with perhaps only a slight improvement to MVFR at SJT and ABI. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ A strong cold front is moving through the area this morning, and has already moved through the KABI terminal. Winds will turn to the north at 15 to 20 knots, with gusts between 25 to 30 knots at all sites by late morning. Ceilings will also lower to IFR at all sites by late morning or early afternoon, and remain there into tonight. With a very humid air mass behind the cold front, patchy fog and or some drizzle may also affect area sites. For now will just include BR with a reduction in VIS to 4SM or 5SM through most of the day. Scattered showers may also affect all sites intermittently today, so have also kept the VCSH in the TAFs for today. Expect most of the precipitation to move out of the area overnight tonight, with potentially slowly improving conditions. 20 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Showers and thunderstorms have been affecting the CWA over the last several hours, although no severe weather has occurred. A few locations have received more than an inch of rainfall, but most areas have received between one quarter of an inch to an inch of rain. Additional showers and thunderstorms are developing across the northern Permian Basin that are moving east into the Big Country. A strong cold front is also moving quickly south. Temperature drops of 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit within 10 to 15 minutes are taking place behind the front. The front had made it pretty much to the I-20 corridor as of 430 AM this morning, and will likely be through the San Angelo area by 7 AM. Temperatures behind the front are in the low to mid 40s in our area but could drop into the 30s for several hours along/north of I-20 today. Needless to say, temperatures will hold steady or fall throughout the day behind the front. Folks along the I-10 corridor will wake up to temperatures in the 60s, but will see them fall into the by early afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 30s area-wide. Have kept freezing temperatures north of I-20 for now as cloud cover may help to offset cooling behind the front. High resolution models continue to show scattered to numerous showers with the potential for a few thunderstorms behind the front today. Have kept the highest chances in our eastern counties and Big Country areas where precipitation is either occurring, or moving in. Still retaining "Likely" chances for the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, but the potential for significant rainfall is much better to the east and north of those areas. Will not introduce any wintry mix into the precipitation for today, but a little sleet could mix in with the rain at times, mainly along and north of I-20. Tonight, the GFS and ECMWF, generally push the precipitation south of us, but a few showers will still be possible for the southern half of the area tonight. LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) It will be cool on Friday in the wake of today's front, with overcast skies keeping afternoon highs only in the 40s and 50s. Have kept a slight chance of PoPs in the morning across the northern Edwards Plateau where a few showers could be lingering. A warming trend will commence on Saturday as low level flow once again becomes southerly. Temperatures will rebound into the 60s and 70s on Saturday and Sunday, with overnight lows in the 40s. Our attention then turns to the next strong cold front which will sweep across West Central Texas Sunday night/Monday morning. The GFS is about 6 hours faster than the ECMWF with the FROPA, pushing the front through the entire CWA by Monday afternoon. Gusty north winds will accompany the front. Temperatures will quickly fall through the day on Monday, with below freezing temperatures expected Monday night. Rain chances will increase as well as the front moves through. The interesting part of the forecast comes Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lingering shortwave energy emanating from a near stationary upper level low over Baja California could lead to some additional precipitation developing across southern portions of the forecast area during this time. With temperatures falling below freezing this would raise the possibility of some sort of wintry mix occurring. Forecaster confidence this far out is low, as the airmass building in behind the arctic front on Monday will be very dry. But will go ahead and introduce a chance of a rain/snow mix across the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. Stay tuned. Otherwise, it will be cold on Tuesday with highs only in the 40s and freezing temperatures again Tuesday night. Temperatures will rebound into the 50s for Wednesday with dry conditions expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 42 35 52 39 / 90 20 0 0 San Angelo 57 35 54 38 / 60 30 5 0 Junction 64 37 55 38 / 80 50 20 5 Brownwood 61 35 52 35 / 100 20 5 0 Sweetwater 39 35 51 40 / 90 20 0 0 Ozona 63 36 55 39 / 60 40 20 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$