160 
FXUS63 KIND 071646
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1146 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

Rain showers will linger through daybreak mainly across the
southern counties, then taper off by mid-morning. The remainder of
today will be partly cloudy as high pressure strengthens over the
region. This high pressure will keep conditions dry with below
normal temperatures through Sunday. That's when the next cold
front will bring rain and snow showers from Sunday night through
Monday.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 945 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

Rain continues to push off to the southeast. Updated PoPs to reflect 
current trends seen on radar. Still expect rain to end by early 
afternoon. Radar shows that some mixing of snow/graupel could be 
occurring on the northern edge of the rain.

Otherwise still expect to see gradual clearing today from the 
northwest, first with the lower clouds then eventually the high 
clouds. 

Previous discussion follows...

Current radar mosaic shows most of the rain confined to the
southern counties south of cold front. Elsewhere, the rain has
already tapered off over the remainder of central Indiana, so this
will limit the snowflakes this morning. The entire forecast area
is also expected to be dry sooner than earlier model trends. So,
expect the last showers to exit the southern counties by early
afternoon and partly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Meanwhile, 
daytime highs today will only top off in the upper 30s (north) to 
low/mid 40s (south). North winds will be breezy in the wake of
aforementioned cold front. Sustained winds will range between 10
to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

The main story for the short term period will be cold. High
pressure will encompass much of the eastern U.S. through the
forecast period. So, conditions will be dry, but overnight lows
will plummet into the 20s tonight and Friday night with
substantial radiational cooling. Meanwhile, daytime highs will
only top off in the 30s.

Saturday, weak warm advection will be enough to bump high
temperatures into the 40s with lows in the 30s on Saturday night.
However, the accompanying southwest winds will be breezy with
sustained speeds of 10 mph and gusts to 25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/... 
Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

Models and ensembles in agreement that arctic air will move sweep 
across Central Indiana early next week. Low level thermals support 
temper temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below normal per the blend. 
Look for afternoon highs in the 50s Sunday but only in the 30s and 
40s Monday and even colder in the upper 20s and lower 30s Tuesday.

Prior to that, upper trough over the Great Lakes and impulses moving 
around the base will team up to bring small chances for rain and 
then rain and snow to all or parts of the area Sunday night through 
Monday night per the blend. However, confidence in exact timing and 
coverage could be better.  

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 071800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1146 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 

MVFR conditions are expected to give way to VFR this afternoon. 

Area of MVFR clouds across the sites will slowly shift south and 
east during the afternoon, allowing VFR to return. VFR will then 
prevail into Friday, with lake enhanced clouds staying mainly 
northeast of the sites.

Northwest winds will diminish later tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50 
SHORT TERM...TDUD 
LONG TERM....MK 
AVIATION...50