160 FXUS63 KIND 071646 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1146 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 Rain showers will linger through daybreak mainly across the southern counties, then taper off by mid-morning. The remainder of today will be partly cloudy as high pressure strengthens over the region. This high pressure will keep conditions dry with below normal temperatures through Sunday. That's when the next cold front will bring rain and snow showers from Sunday night through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 945 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 Rain continues to push off to the southeast. Updated PoPs to reflect current trends seen on radar. Still expect rain to end by early afternoon. Radar shows that some mixing of snow/graupel could be occurring on the northern edge of the rain. Otherwise still expect to see gradual clearing today from the northwest, first with the lower clouds then eventually the high clouds. Previous discussion follows... Current radar mosaic shows most of the rain confined to the southern counties south of cold front. Elsewhere, the rain has already tapered off over the remainder of central Indiana, so this will limit the snowflakes this morning. The entire forecast area is also expected to be dry sooner than earlier model trends. So, expect the last showers to exit the southern counties by early afternoon and partly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Meanwhile, daytime highs today will only top off in the upper 30s (north) to low/mid 40s (south). North winds will be breezy in the wake of aforementioned cold front. Sustained winds will range between 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 The main story for the short term period will be cold. High pressure will encompass much of the eastern U.S. through the forecast period. So, conditions will be dry, but overnight lows will plummet into the 20s tonight and Friday night with substantial radiational cooling. Meanwhile, daytime highs will only top off in the 30s. Saturday, weak warm advection will be enough to bump high temperatures into the 40s with lows in the 30s on Saturday night. However, the accompanying southwest winds will be breezy with sustained speeds of 10 mph and gusts to 25 mph. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/... Issued at 200 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 Models and ensembles in agreement that arctic air will move sweep across Central Indiana early next week. Low level thermals support temper temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below normal per the blend. Look for afternoon highs in the 50s Sunday but only in the 30s and 40s Monday and even colder in the upper 20s and lower 30s Tuesday. Prior to that, upper trough over the Great Lakes and impulses moving around the base will team up to bring small chances for rain and then rain and snow to all or parts of the area Sunday night through Monday night per the blend. However, confidence in exact timing and coverage could be better. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 071800Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1146 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2019 MVFR conditions are expected to give way to VFR this afternoon. Area of MVFR clouds across the sites will slowly shift south and east during the afternoon, allowing VFR to return. VFR will then prevail into Friday, with lake enhanced clouds staying mainly northeast of the sites. Northwest winds will diminish later tonight into Friday morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD NEAR TERM...TDUD/50 SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...50