150 
FXUS65 KBOU 041614
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
914 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019

There continues to be a moderate northwest flow pattern aloft
across northern Colorado while a strong 100kt jet streak is
oriented northwest to southeast across Northern Wyoming and
Western Nebraska. This has resulted in a solid deck of clouds
across the northeast plains and even a few light rain showers
across the plains as temperatures are around 40 degrees. Further
west towards the Front Range, mainly a scattered to broken mid
level deck of clouds persist. 

Temperatures will be cooler today behind last nights weak front 
and the persistent cloud cover, especially over the far northeast 
plains. Afternoon highs will be in the 40s across lower
elevations. The forecast plan is for gradually decreasing clouds 
later today and tonight as the jet streak shifts further east away
from Colorado. There is still enough mountain top flow to result 
in occasional gusty winds in the mountains generally in the 30-50 
mph range. Only minor changes to ongoing forecast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019

A weak upper level disturbance is producing isolated to scattered
rain/snow mix of precipitation this morning. The precipitation 
will remain north of a line from Akron to Fort Collins this 
morning. High resolution models generate minimal qpf in those 
areas, so will stick with isolated pop coverage up there through 
18z. By this afternoon, the light precipitation related to this 
system will shift to the north and east of the forecast area. 
Cooler airmass will settle into the urban corridor and northeast 
plains today, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. 
Skies will clear from west to east by midday. For tonight, mostly 
clear with a dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. Spatial
cross- sections look pretty benign regarding high wind potential 
in the mountains and higher foothills, but could still see a few 
gusts up to 35 mph in the more wind prone areas overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019

Pretty quiet under northwest flow with mild and dry air aloft over
Colorado and shortwaves dropping across the northern plains and
Midwest. We're on the tail end of one front Wednesday night that
still looks like the mid level lift and moisture are all well
northeast of us. However, the low level front still looks
significant and will bring some cooling and possibly some low
level moisture. Model soundings hint at a possible freezing
drizzle setup overnight Wednesday night, though it's not well
resolved. Not sold on it enough to put it in the forecast just
yet, but something to watch out for. If it happens, amounts should
be pretty light. The other threat is with the shortwave dropping
across the plains on Sunday. The operational model runs have a
stronger upstream ridge now and are trending stronger/further 
southwest with this shortwave, which could bring more cooling and
some light precipitation on Sunday when previous model runs had 
little impact. We trended the forecast a bit in this direction and
introduced a chance of snow for the mountains. More cooling and a
little rain or snow is not out of the question for the plains 
either if the amplifying trend continues. If not, there will still
probably be some cooling and that's where our forecast will sit
for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 900 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019

VFR conditions with varying scattered to broken deck of mid and
upper level clouds for today. Any lower clouds will be further
east, generally north and east of a Sterling to Holyoke line. Surface
winds will gradually shift to an easterly component this afternoon
before becoming drainage southerly winds by later this evening at
local terminals. There will be continued gusty winds of 30-50kt
over higher east slopes of the Front Range with mountain wave
clouds. 


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Cooper