150 FXUS65 KBOU 041614 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 914 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 There continues to be a moderate northwest flow pattern aloft across northern Colorado while a strong 100kt jet streak is oriented northwest to southeast across Northern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. This has resulted in a solid deck of clouds across the northeast plains and even a few light rain showers across the plains as temperatures are around 40 degrees. Further west towards the Front Range, mainly a scattered to broken mid level deck of clouds persist. Temperatures will be cooler today behind last nights weak front and the persistent cloud cover, especially over the far northeast plains. Afternoon highs will be in the 40s across lower elevations. The forecast plan is for gradually decreasing clouds later today and tonight as the jet streak shifts further east away from Colorado. There is still enough mountain top flow to result in occasional gusty winds in the mountains generally in the 30-50 mph range. Only minor changes to ongoing forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 435 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 A weak upper level disturbance is producing isolated to scattered rain/snow mix of precipitation this morning. The precipitation will remain north of a line from Akron to Fort Collins this morning. High resolution models generate minimal qpf in those areas, so will stick with isolated pop coverage up there through 18z. By this afternoon, the light precipitation related to this system will shift to the north and east of the forecast area. Cooler airmass will settle into the urban corridor and northeast plains today, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. Skies will clear from west to east by midday. For tonight, mostly clear with a dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. Spatial cross- sections look pretty benign regarding high wind potential in the mountains and higher foothills, but could still see a few gusts up to 35 mph in the more wind prone areas overnight. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 435 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 Pretty quiet under northwest flow with mild and dry air aloft over Colorado and shortwaves dropping across the northern plains and Midwest. We're on the tail end of one front Wednesday night that still looks like the mid level lift and moisture are all well northeast of us. However, the low level front still looks significant and will bring some cooling and possibly some low level moisture. Model soundings hint at a possible freezing drizzle setup overnight Wednesday night, though it's not well resolved. Not sold on it enough to put it in the forecast just yet, but something to watch out for. If it happens, amounts should be pretty light. The other threat is with the shortwave dropping across the plains on Sunday. The operational model runs have a stronger upstream ridge now and are trending stronger/further southwest with this shortwave, which could bring more cooling and some light precipitation on Sunday when previous model runs had little impact. We trended the forecast a bit in this direction and introduced a chance of snow for the mountains. More cooling and a little rain or snow is not out of the question for the plains either if the amplifying trend continues. If not, there will still probably be some cooling and that's where our forecast will sit for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 900 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 VFR conditions with varying scattered to broken deck of mid and upper level clouds for today. Any lower clouds will be further east, generally north and east of a Sterling to Holyoke line. Surface winds will gradually shift to an easterly component this afternoon before becoming drainage southerly winds by later this evening at local terminals. There will be continued gusty winds of 30-50kt over higher east slopes of the Front Range with mountain wave clouds. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Entrekin SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...Cooper