890 
FXUS63 KFGF 161148
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
648 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Fog has developing into far northeast ND and parts of northwest MN
(locally dense), and patchy fog was added to this morning. Short
range guidance has decent enough handle on location/coverage and
has all vis restrictions improving by 16Z. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Surface high pressure axis still over our CWA with cold pool aloft
keeping stratus in place through much of the day. CAMs hint at
potential for light showers as a weak vort max rotates through NW
flow in the mid levels, however saturation is mainly in mid-upper
levels with substantial dry/mixed layer which favors virga or at
most non measurable rain (sprinkles) through this afternoon. I 
kept precip out of forecast for now. While we can't rule out 
breaks in clouds this afternoon in our west, trend will be for 
persistent low to mid cloud cover to inhibit temps and similar 
highs as yesterday (upper 30s/lower 40s). 

Surface high shifts east tonight and we start to see more
substantial WAA as ridge builds into our CWA Thursday. Despite
some moderation in air mass, clearing skies may actually result in
overnight lows similar to the past few nights or event possibly
colder (upper 20s/lower 30s). Dry conditions and much warmer
temperatures expected Thursday, with highs across much of our CWA
in the 50s, possibly 60 in the southern RRV. Snow pack is 
eroding efficiently and may have diminishing impacts on temps Thu
over more of our area, though where deepest pack is highs will 
still be lower. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Thursday night through Saturday: Relatively quiet and warmer weather 
prevails as shortwave ridging exits to the east late Thursday night. 
A rather quick moving shortwave trough then moves across the area on 
Friday, bringing a chance for scattered showers, with impacts 
expected to remain low. This will push off to the east Friday night 
with quiet and dry weather returning for Saturday. 

Saturday night through Tuesday: Attention turns to our next H5 low 
that is forecast to impact the region Sunday through late Monday. A 
deep upper trough will close off as it traverses the northern US 
Rockies Sunday morning. There is good ensemble agreement regarding 
track and strength but temporal uncertainty remains. Overall, we are 
looking at a scenario where good moisture advection on the east side 
of the low will provide a favorable scenario for moderate to heavy 
rainfall across portions of the region. Current guidance suggests 
that areas east of the Red River will see the best chances for heavy 
precipitation, which at this point should remain all rain as 
temperature profiles favor above freezing temperatures through the 
lower portions of the column. It is worth noting, however, there is 
a slow trend that brings a thicker dendritic growth profile to areas 
west of the Red River on Monday. Currently, this would be an 
outlying solution without large scale ensemble support, but is worth 
watching going forward. As such, there is a mention of mixed 
precipitation possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Impacts for the Saturday night through Tuesday period will mainly be 
limited to moderate to heavy precipitation and gusty winds. Pressure 
rises, on the trailing side of the low will provide favorable 
conditions for strong north to northwest winds in the 25 to 35 mph 
range with gusts over 45 mph potentially. As of the current 
guidance, these impacts are most likely late Sunday night through 
Monday afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A quiet period of weather prevails early 
Tuesday before a fast moving system brings a chance for 
precipitation to the CWA as this active pattern continues. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Prevailing IFR ceilings across eastern ND and northwest MN with a
few pockets of LIFR ceilings in MN. Fog that developed over far
northeast ND and northwest MN impacting KTVF with vis 1-3sm range
may spread to KGFK during the early TAF period. Otherwise, fog
less likely at other terminals. Any visibility restrictions 
should improve by 16Z, though VFR ceilings may not prevail until 
later this afternoon across the region. Winds will generally 
remain light and variable today eventually shifting to the south- 
southwest around 5kt later in the TAF period as low pressure 
begins to build east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

The current forecast includes for minor to moderate flooding along 
the mainstem Red River except at Oslo, which has just edged above 
major stage, and set for a lengthy broad crest starting on Thu. The 
Minnesota side is still trending downward with many areas proximal 
to the southern valley only featuring notices for higher levels of 
water.  

A different story exists along the ND tributaries to the Red River 
of the North. We are still waiting for the full impact of remaining 
snowmelt over the Devils Lake Basin and points to the north and 
east. Conditions downstream of Lake Ashtabula will be dependent on 
this and operations at Baldhill Dam. Currently, notices of high 
water exist from Valley City through Lisbon, with minor to moderate 
flooding occurring along the lower Sheyenne closer to Fargo. 

The forecast includes some good short term news : drier for a nice 
run starting now, with moderating temperatures into the 50s with 
some 60s by late week.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR
HYDROLOGY...WJB