890 FXUS63 KFGF 161148 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 648 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Fog has developing into far northeast ND and parts of northwest MN (locally dense), and patchy fog was added to this morning. Short range guidance has decent enough handle on location/coverage and has all vis restrictions improving by 16Z. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Surface high pressure axis still over our CWA with cold pool aloft keeping stratus in place through much of the day. CAMs hint at potential for light showers as a weak vort max rotates through NW flow in the mid levels, however saturation is mainly in mid-upper levels with substantial dry/mixed layer which favors virga or at most non measurable rain (sprinkles) through this afternoon. I kept precip out of forecast for now. While we can't rule out breaks in clouds this afternoon in our west, trend will be for persistent low to mid cloud cover to inhibit temps and similar highs as yesterday (upper 30s/lower 40s). Surface high shifts east tonight and we start to see more substantial WAA as ridge builds into our CWA Thursday. Despite some moderation in air mass, clearing skies may actually result in overnight lows similar to the past few nights or event possibly colder (upper 20s/lower 30s). Dry conditions and much warmer temperatures expected Thursday, with highs across much of our CWA in the 50s, possibly 60 in the southern RRV. Snow pack is eroding efficiently and may have diminishing impacts on temps Thu over more of our area, though where deepest pack is highs will still be lower. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Thursday night through Saturday: Relatively quiet and warmer weather prevails as shortwave ridging exits to the east late Thursday night. A rather quick moving shortwave trough then moves across the area on Friday, bringing a chance for scattered showers, with impacts expected to remain low. This will push off to the east Friday night with quiet and dry weather returning for Saturday. Saturday night through Tuesday: Attention turns to our next H5 low that is forecast to impact the region Sunday through late Monday. A deep upper trough will close off as it traverses the northern US Rockies Sunday morning. There is good ensemble agreement regarding track and strength but temporal uncertainty remains. Overall, we are looking at a scenario where good moisture advection on the east side of the low will provide a favorable scenario for moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of the region. Current guidance suggests that areas east of the Red River will see the best chances for heavy precipitation, which at this point should remain all rain as temperature profiles favor above freezing temperatures through the lower portions of the column. It is worth noting, however, there is a slow trend that brings a thicker dendritic growth profile to areas west of the Red River on Monday. Currently, this would be an outlying solution without large scale ensemble support, but is worth watching going forward. As such, there is a mention of mixed precipitation possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Impacts for the Saturday night through Tuesday period will mainly be limited to moderate to heavy precipitation and gusty winds. Pressure rises, on the trailing side of the low will provide favorable conditions for strong north to northwest winds in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts over 45 mph potentially. As of the current guidance, these impacts are most likely late Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday: A quiet period of weather prevails early Tuesday before a fast moving system brings a chance for precipitation to the CWA as this active pattern continues. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Prevailing IFR ceilings across eastern ND and northwest MN with a few pockets of LIFR ceilings in MN. Fog that developed over far northeast ND and northwest MN impacting KTVF with vis 1-3sm range may spread to KGFK during the early TAF period. Otherwise, fog less likely at other terminals. Any visibility restrictions should improve by 16Z, though VFR ceilings may not prevail until later this afternoon across the region. Winds will generally remain light and variable today eventually shifting to the south- southwest around 5kt later in the TAF period as low pressure begins to build east. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 The current forecast includes for minor to moderate flooding along the mainstem Red River except at Oslo, which has just edged above major stage, and set for a lengthy broad crest starting on Thu. The Minnesota side is still trending downward with many areas proximal to the southern valley only featuring notices for higher levels of water. A different story exists along the ND tributaries to the Red River of the North. We are still waiting for the full impact of remaining snowmelt over the Devils Lake Basin and points to the north and east. Conditions downstream of Lake Ashtabula will be dependent on this and operations at Baldhill Dam. Currently, notices of high water exist from Valley City through Lisbon, with minor to moderate flooding occurring along the lower Sheyenne closer to Fargo. The forecast includes some good short term news : drier for a nice run starting now, with moderating temperatures into the 50s with some 60s by late week. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...DJR LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...DJR HYDROLOGY...WJB