487 
FXUS63 KLSX 130130
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
830 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

Forecast on track with mainly clear skies and a light SW surface 
flow expected. Only clouds that are expected through Sunday
afternoon is a streak of high cirrus clouds that will slip through
southeastern MO and southern IL shortly. Otherwise, look for temps
to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. No frost/freeze headlines
needed with winds too strong to limit frost for areas north of
I-70 and areas in southeast MO already had a hard freeze last
night. Highs on Sunday will reach 70 degrees around the STL 
metro area and southeast MO/southern IL thanks to full sunshine 
and stout SW winds with slightly cooler readings in the 60s 
expected for areas further N and W. 

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

Temperatures are around 10 degrees below normal at mid afternoon 
under a sunny sky. Winds were south to southwest between deep low 
pressure centered over northern Minnesota and a ridge axis that 
extended from the Ohio River Valley into Texas. The sky was sunny
across Missouri and Illinois at mid afternoon with south to
southwest winds. South to southwest surface winds will continue 
before a weak cold front moves south into the area on Sunday 
causing winds become light and variable as the front stalls over 
the area. With all of the upper dynamics staying north of the area
and the atmosphere staying dry through a deep layer, expect dry 
weather through Sunday night.

Temperatures will not be quite as cold as they were last night given 
the warmer start and slightly stronger winds. Highs tomorrow 
should be warmer that today as 850mb temperatures climb to around 
+8C.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

There is still good agreement between the deterministic global 
models as well as the GEFS mean that another upper trough will 
drop out of south central Canada into the Great Lakes early next 
week. The attendant cold front will move across the area on 
Tuesday which will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. 
Wednesday through Thursday night still look dry as an upper ridge 
moves through the central CONUS. Then the GEFS mean is bringing 
another trough across the area late next week which brings a 
chance of showers on Friday.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be near normal ahead of 
front, but then fall back below normal Wednesday as 850mb 
temperatures will be close to 0C.  GEFS mean temperatures are 
showing some rebound by the end of next week, but it is also showing 
an increase in the spread of the ensemble members which decreases 
the overall confidence in the forecast.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019

VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail at the TAF sites
through the valid period. S-SW surface winds will gradually veer
W-SW on Sunday with gustiness to 20kts developing at KUIN. 

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX