487 FXUS63 KLSX 130130 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 830 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 Forecast on track with mainly clear skies and a light SW surface flow expected. Only clouds that are expected through Sunday afternoon is a streak of high cirrus clouds that will slip through southeastern MO and southern IL shortly. Otherwise, look for temps to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. No frost/freeze headlines needed with winds too strong to limit frost for areas north of I-70 and areas in southeast MO already had a hard freeze last night. Highs on Sunday will reach 70 degrees around the STL metro area and southeast MO/southern IL thanks to full sunshine and stout SW winds with slightly cooler readings in the 60s expected for areas further N and W. TES && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 Temperatures are around 10 degrees below normal at mid afternoon under a sunny sky. Winds were south to southwest between deep low pressure centered over northern Minnesota and a ridge axis that extended from the Ohio River Valley into Texas. The sky was sunny across Missouri and Illinois at mid afternoon with south to southwest winds. South to southwest surface winds will continue before a weak cold front moves south into the area on Sunday causing winds become light and variable as the front stalls over the area. With all of the upper dynamics staying north of the area and the atmosphere staying dry through a deep layer, expect dry weather through Sunday night. Temperatures will not be quite as cold as they were last night given the warmer start and slightly stronger winds. Highs tomorrow should be warmer that today as 850mb temperatures climb to around +8C. Britt .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 There is still good agreement between the deterministic global models as well as the GEFS mean that another upper trough will drop out of south central Canada into the Great Lakes early next week. The attendant cold front will move across the area on Tuesday which will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday through Thursday night still look dry as an upper ridge moves through the central CONUS. Then the GEFS mean is bringing another trough across the area late next week which brings a chance of showers on Friday. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be near normal ahead of front, but then fall back below normal Wednesday as 850mb temperatures will be close to 0C. GEFS mean temperatures are showing some rebound by the end of next week, but it is also showing an increase in the spread of the ensemble members which decreases the overall confidence in the forecast. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2019 VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail at the TAF sites through the valid period. S-SW surface winds will gradually veer W-SW on Sunday with gustiness to 20kts developing at KUIN. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX