792 
FXUS64 KSJT 112359
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
659 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24 hours. 
Scattered showers will be possible across the far southern 
terminals the next couple of hours and have added a TEMPO 
group for -SHRA. Expect light north winds overnight, becoming
light southeasterly by Saturday afternoon. A VFR deck between 
5K and 10K feet will affect the southern terminals through
much of the period.        

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and tomorrow)

..Coldest night of the season tonight. Pleasant day tomorrow...

A freeze warning is in effect for areas north of Interstate 20.
In the wake of the strong cold front that moved through the area 
last night, very dry air has moved into western Texas with dewpoints 
dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s. With the arrival of a 
strong surface high pressure moving south along the Red River, 
surface winds should be light, if not completely calm this evening. 
With low dewpoints, light winds and clear skies, this is a classic 
setup for a good radiational cooling event across the northern Big 
Country. Temperatures should drop quickly through the evening and 
hit the freezing mark during the early morning hours. Confidence in 
other areas hitting freezing is low at this time for areas south of 
the Interstate 20 corridor. Some lingering cloud cover and the 
redevelopment of some morning low to mid level cloud decks should 
put a cap on the cooling of temperatures across these areas. 
Nevertheless, temperatures will be cold with lows ranging from the 
mid 30s to low 40s. 

After a cold start to the day, winds will slowly begin to veer back 
to the southeast as the surface high pressure moves off to the east. 
Temperatures should rebound after sunrise and by the afternoon we 
could see temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s 
under mostly sunny skies. 

40

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)

Generally quiet weather expected from Saturday night into Sunday
as an upper level ridge remains in place across South Texas and
northern central Mexico. Temperatures Sunday are expected to be
back into the 80s for most areas. 

From Monday into Tuesday, both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show
moisture being siphoned off of a tropical system off the coast of
Mexico being pulled into our area. This mid/upper level moisture,
combined with returning Gulf of Mexico low level moisture and
shortwave energy moving across the area in west/southwest flow 
continues to argue for at least a chance for showers and 
thunderstorms, mainly from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. 
Models show the tropical system eventually being pulled eastward 
and across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. At the same time, a 
cold front will move south through the area. Where these two 
features meet, there will be another good chance for showers and 
thunderstorms. At this time, it appears that this will be just 
south of our area, although some locations along I-10 could see 
some additional precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

As far as temperatures go, after mainly 80s for highs Sunday into
Tuesday, slightly cooler temperatures will move in behind the 
front for Wednesday, followed quickly by another warming trend for
the second half of the week. 

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 36  65  50  86 /   0   0  10   0 
San Angelo 	 39  67  50  86 /   0   5  10   0 
Junction 	 43  66  50  84 /   5  10  10   0 
Brownwood 	 37  65  48  83 /   5   5  20   0 
Sweetwater 	 36  64  50  85 /   0   0  10   0 
Ozona      	 42  64  48  82 /   5  10  10   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Fisher-Haskell-
Jones-Shackelford-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

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