792 FXUS64 KSJT 112359 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 659 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24 hours. Scattered showers will be possible across the far southern terminals the next couple of hours and have added a TEMPO group for -SHRA. Expect light north winds overnight, becoming light southeasterly by Saturday afternoon. A VFR deck between 5K and 10K feet will affect the southern terminals through much of the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and tomorrow) ..Coldest night of the season tonight. Pleasant day tomorrow... A freeze warning is in effect for areas north of Interstate 20. In the wake of the strong cold front that moved through the area last night, very dry air has moved into western Texas with dewpoints dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s. With the arrival of a strong surface high pressure moving south along the Red River, surface winds should be light, if not completely calm this evening. With low dewpoints, light winds and clear skies, this is a classic setup for a good radiational cooling event across the northern Big Country. Temperatures should drop quickly through the evening and hit the freezing mark during the early morning hours. Confidence in other areas hitting freezing is low at this time for areas south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Some lingering cloud cover and the redevelopment of some morning low to mid level cloud decks should put a cap on the cooling of temperatures across these areas. Nevertheless, temperatures will be cold with lows ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s. After a cold start to the day, winds will slowly begin to veer back to the southeast as the surface high pressure moves off to the east. Temperatures should rebound after sunrise and by the afternoon we could see temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s under mostly sunny skies. 40 LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Generally quiet weather expected from Saturday night into Sunday as an upper level ridge remains in place across South Texas and northern central Mexico. Temperatures Sunday are expected to be back into the 80s for most areas. From Monday into Tuesday, both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show moisture being siphoned off of a tropical system off the coast of Mexico being pulled into our area. This mid/upper level moisture, combined with returning Gulf of Mexico low level moisture and shortwave energy moving across the area in west/southwest flow continues to argue for at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Models show the tropical system eventually being pulled eastward and across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. At the same time, a cold front will move south through the area. Where these two features meet, there will be another good chance for showers and thunderstorms. At this time, it appears that this will be just south of our area, although some locations along I-10 could see some additional precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. As far as temperatures go, after mainly 80s for highs Sunday into Tuesday, slightly cooler temperatures will move in behind the front for Wednesday, followed quickly by another warming trend for the second half of the week. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 36 65 50 86 / 0 0 10 0 San Angelo 39 67 50 86 / 0 5 10 0 Junction 43 66 50 84 / 5 10 10 0 Brownwood 37 65 48 83 / 5 5 20 0 Sweetwater 36 64 50 85 / 0 0 10 0 Ozona 42 64 48 82 / 5 10 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Fisher-Haskell- Jones-Shackelford-Throckmorton. && $$ 99/99/24